摘要
Thispaperexaminestherelativestrengthoffactorsinpredictingtheonsetofafinancialcrisisintheemergingmarketduringthe1990s.Weestimateaprobitmodelbasedonthequarterlydataof18countries.Theresultssuggestthatthemis-managementintheeconomyandbankingsystem,theshiftsintheinternationalconditionsandthedepthofcontagioneffectsarestronglyassociatedwiththepresenceofcrises.Someoftheresultsaresomewhatdifferentfromtheotherempiricalstudiesbasedonannualdata.Acarefulanalysisoftheprobabilitydistributionsshowedthattheresultswereclosetobeingcorrectinover90%ofthecases.
出版日期
2001年01月11日(中国期刊网平台首次上网日期,不代表论文的发表时间)