简介：AbstractBackground:Hypertension is associated with stroke-related mortality. However, the long-term association of blood pressure (BP) and the risk of stroke-related mortality and the influence path of BP on stroke-related death remain unknown. The current study aimed to estimate the long-term causal associations between BP and stroke-related mortality and the potential mediating and moderated mediating model of the associations.Methods:This is a 45-year follow-up cohort study and a total of 1696 subjects were enrolled in 1976 and 1081 participants died by the latest follow-up in 2020. COX proportional hazard model was used to explore the associations of stroke-related death with baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP)/diastolic blood pressure (DBP) categories and BP changes from 1976 to 1994. The mediating and moderated mediating effects were performed to detect the possible influencing path from BP to stroke-related deaths. E value was calculated in the sensitivity analysis.Results:Among 1696 participants, the average age was 44.38 ± 6.10 years, and 1124 were men (66.3%). After a 45-year follow-up, a total of 201 (11.9%) stroke-related deaths occurred. After the adjustment, the COX proportional hazard model showed that among the participants with SBP ≥ 160 mmHg or DBP ≥ 100 mmHg in 1976, the risk of stroke-related death increased by 217.5% (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.175, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.297-4.388), and the adjusted HRs were higher in male participants. Among the participants with hypertension in 1976 and 1994, the risk of stroke-related death increased by 110.4% (HR= 2.104, 95% CI: 1.632-2.713), and the adjusted HRs of the BP changes were higher in male participants. Body mass index (BMI) significantly mediated the association of SBP and stroke-related deaths and this mediating effect was moderated by gender.Conclusions:In a 45-year follow-up, high BP and persistent hypertension are associated with stroke-related death, and these associations were even more pronounced in male participants. The paths of association are mediated by BMI and moderated by gender.

简介：AbstractBackground:Pancreatitis is a common disease of the digestive system. Acute pancreatitis is one of the most common reasons for gastrointestinal hospital admission, and chronic pancreatitis significantly reduces quality of life. However, national epidemiological data on pancreatitis in China are lacking. This study aimed to quantify the disease burden of pancreatitis in China from 1990 to 2019.Methods:This study was based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 dataset. Age-standardized rates of incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were used to describe the disease burden of pancreatitis, and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to indicate the average change in age-standardized rates. We also described the trend of pancreatitis-related mortality and DALYs, which are attributable to alcohol use by age and sex.Results:From 1990 to 2019, the ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and age-standardized DALYs of pancreatitis in China decreased by 10.90, 1.50, 0.49, and 15.54 per 100,000, respectively, with EAPCs of -1.35 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: -1.67, -1.02) and -0.37 (95% UI: -0.43, -0.31), -2.01 (95% UI: -2.07, -1.94) and -2.32 (95% UI: -2.37, -2.28), respectively. Recently, the numbers of incident and prevalent cases have risen, with estimates of 380,018 (95% UI: 308,669-462,767) and 493,765 (95% UI: 416,705-578,675), respectively, in 2019. Among men, the disease burden of pancreatitis was more severe than among women, and with variances in the distribution among different age groups. Age-standardized DALYs caused by alcohol-related pancreatitis have gradually worsened in the past decade, accounting for 34.09% of the total in 2019.Conclusions:The disease burden of pancreatitis in China has declined in the past 30 years, but the exacerbation of population aging poses a challenge to prevention and control of pancreatitis. Alcohol use has gradually become an important factor in the disease burden of pancreatitis in recent years.

简介：AbstractBackground:Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) has greatly damaged the health of patients and is accompanied by a dismal prognosis. The worldwide distribution of GBTC shows extensive variance and the updated data in China is lacking. This study was to determine the current status, trends, and predictions in the burden of GBTC over the past 30 years in China.Methods:This was a descriptive, epidemiological, secondary analysis of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study 2019 data. Data including incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of GBTC in China by year, age, and sex were assessed. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to evaluate trends of disease burden due to GBTC from 1990 to 2019. Nordpred age-period-cohort analysis was applied for the projection of mortality and incidence due to GBTC from 2019 to 2044.Results:Nationally, there were 38,634 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 27,350–46,512) new cases and 47,278 (95% UI: 32,889–57,229) patients due to GBTC, causing 34,462 (95% UI: 25,220–41,231) deaths, and 763,584 (95% UI: 566,755–920,493) DALYs in 2019. Both cases and rates of burden owing to GBTC were heavier among males and at old age. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs of GBTC generally increased from 1990 to 2019, with average annual percentage change at 0.8% (95% confidential interval [CI]: 0.6–1.0%), 1.3% (95% CI: 1.1–1.5%), 0.4% (95% CI: 0.2–0.6%), and 0.2% (95% CI: 0.1–0.4%), respectively. Even though the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized mortality rate in both sexes were predicted to decline gradually from 2019 to 2044, the number of new cases and deaths were expected to grow steadily.Conclusions:GBTC is becoming a major health burden in China, particularly among males and older individuals. Given the aging population and increasing burden, effective strategies and measurements are urged to prevent or reduce the number of new cases and deaths of GBTC.