简介:Naturalhazardssuchashurricanesmaycauseextensiveeconomiclossesandsocialdisruptionforcivilstructuresandinfrastructuresincoastalareas,implyingtheimportanceofunderstandingtheconstructionperformancesubjectedtohurricanesandassessingthehurricanedamagesproperly.Theintensityandfrequencyofhurricaneshavebeenreportedtochangewithtimeduetothepotentialimpactofclimatechange.Inthispaper,aprobability-basedmodelofhurricanedamageassessmentforcoastalconstructionsisproposedtakingintoaccountthenon-stationarityinhurricaneintensityandfrequency.Thenon-homogeneousPoissonprocessisemployedtomodelthenon-stationarityinhurricaneoccurrencewhilethenon-stationarityinhurricaneintensityisreflectedbythetime-variantstatisticalparameters(e.g.,meanvalueand/orstandarddeviation),withwhichthemeanvalueandvariationofthecumulativehurricanedamageareevaluatedexplicitly.TheMiami-DadeCounty,Florida,USA,ischosentoillustratethehurricanedamageassessmentmethodproposedinthispaper.Theroleofnon-stationarityinhurricaneintensityandoccurrencerateduetoclimatechangeinhurricanedamageisinvestigatedusingsomerepresentativechangingpatternsofhurricaneparameters.
简介:这研究考虑了是否变窄上面(宽广、漫步)更低的黄河的活动范围能在在隧道侵蚀的沉积甚至两个的增加导致减小上面并且更低(狭窄、蜿蜒地流)活动范围。领域数据和数字建模结果的分析两个都认为这个建议正当缩小隧道。积极关联在侵蚀区域的隧道和隧道宽度之间被发现。因此在低流动的条件下面变窄将在活动范围减少侵蚀的数量,接着,它将减少搬运进更低的隧道的沉积的数量。这将在河的更低的活动范围减少siltation的数量。然而,与沉积的低集中在高流动的条件下面变窄将两个都沿着缩小的隧道和侧面的隧道河岸倒塌的数量减少洪水变细的程度,它在更低的隧道导致增加的流动和更少的沉积,导致增加的侵蚀。当有沉积的高集中的流动被免除Xiaolangdi水库时,更低的狭窄的隧道和上面的隧道罐头搬运大量沉积负担。变窄上面的宽广隧道将在沉积,或甚至在隧道侵蚀导致减小,这被结束,在两个上面并且更低的隧道如果水库被操作以便在低流动期间增加的沉积的体积被体积平衡与沉积的低集中在高流动期间侵蚀了。