摘要
Forthelargenumberofnonlineardegradationdevicesexistinginaproject,theexistingmethodshavenotsystematicallystudiedtheeffectsofrandomeffectontheremaininglifetime(RL),theaccuracyandefficiencyoftheparametersestimationarenothigh,andthecurrentdegradationstateofthetargetdeviceisnotaccuratelyestimated.Inthispaper,anonlinearWienerdegradationmodelwithrandomeffectisproposedandthecorrespondingprobabilitydensityfunction(PDF)ofthefirsthittingtime(FHT)isdeduced.Aparameterestimationmethodbasedonmodifiedexpectationmaximum(EM)algorithmisproposedtoobtaintheestimatedvalueoffixedcoefficientandthepriorivalueofrandomcoefficientinthemodel.Theposteriorvalueoftherandomcoefficientandthecurrentdegradationstateoftargetdeviceareupdatedsynchronouslybythestatespacemodel(SSM)andtheKalmanfilteralgorithm.ThePDFofRLwithrandomeffectisdeduced.AsimulationexampleisanalyzedtoverifythattheproposedmethodhastheobviousadvantageovertheexistingmethodsinparameterestimationerrorandRLpredictionaccuracy.
出版日期
2018年05月15日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
