摘要
Theloadandcorrosioncausedbytheharshmarineenvironmentleadtotheseveredegradationofoffshoreequipmentandtotheircompromisedsecurityandreliability.Inthequantitativeriskanalysis,thefailuremodelsaredifficulttoestablishthroughtraditionalstatisticalmethods.Hence,thecalculationoftheoccurrenceprobabilityofsmallsampleeventsisoftenmetwithgreatuncertainty.Inthisstudy,theBayesianstatisticalmethodisimplementedtoanalyzetheoilandgasleakagesofFPSOinternalturret,whichisatypicalsmallsampleriskbutcouldleadtoseverelosses.Accordingtothecorrespondingfailuremechanism,twoBayesianstatisticalmodelsusingtheWeibulldistributionandlogarithmicnormaldistributionasthepopulationdistributionareestablished,andtheposteriordistributionofthecorrespondingparametersiscalculated.TheoptimalBayesianstatisticalmodelisdeterminedaccordingtotheBayesianinformationcriterionandAkaikecriterion.Onthebasisofthedeterminedoptimalmodel,thecorrespondingreliabilityindexissolvedtoprovidebasicdataforthesubsequentriskassessmentsofFPSOsystems.
出版日期
2019年01月11日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
