ThepresentpaperanalyzeshistoricallytherelationshipbetweencarbonemissionandeconomicdevelopmentbydifferentstagesthroughadoptingelasticdecouplingmethodsandTapioevaluationcriteriaalongwithacomparisonwiththenationalFiveYearPlans.TheanalysisshowsthattheinfluencingfactorstotherelationshipbetweencarbonemissionandeconomyinChinaaredifferent,andeconomicdevelopmentandcarbonemissionhavelessconnectionintherecent30yearsofreformandopening-upinChina.Itisadifficulttasktorealizethepromisethatwewillreducecarbonemissionby40%-50%in2020basedonthedatafromhistoricalexperienceanddifferentexpectationsforeconomicdevelopmentfromeconomists.Throughconstructingthecalcula-tionmodelofcarbonemissionintensitygapaccordingtodifferentdevelopmentscenarios,theanalysisshowsthateconomicgrowth,infrastructureinvestmentandfurtherdevelopmentofindustrial-izationarethemaindriverstotheincreaseofcarbonemission,technologicalprogress,andparticularly,thereductionofenergyconsumptionistheprimarymeanstoreducecarbonemissioninChina.Itisimperativetotransformtheeconomicgrowthpattern,anditisagrandtasktoperformandthereisalongwaytogoforChinatomaintaineconomicgrowthandreducecarbonintensity.
