A Combination Method for Wind Power Prediction Based on Cooperative Game Theory

(整期优先)网络出版时间:2014-02-12
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Accuratepredictionofwindpowerissignificantforpowersystemdispatchingaswellassafeandstableoperation.BymeansofBPneuralnetwork,radialbasisfunctionneuralnetworkandsupportvectormachine,anewcombinedmethodofwindpowerpredictionbasedoncooperativegametheoryisproposed.Inthemethod,everysingleforecastingmodelisregardedasamemberofthecooperativegames,andthesumofsquareerrorofcombinationforecastingistakenastheresultofcooperation.TheresultispidedamongthemembersaccordingtoShapleyvalues,andthenweightsofcombinationforecastingcanbeobtained.Applicationresultsinanactualwindfarmshowthattheproposedmethodcaneffectivelyimprovepredictionprecision.