Simulations of Eurasian Winter Temperature Trends in Coupled and Uncoupled CFSv2

(整期优先)网络出版时间:2018-01-11
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ConflictingresultshavebeenpresentedregardingthelinkbetweenArcticsea-icelossandmidlatitudecooling,partic-ularlyoverEurasia.Thisstudyanalyzesuncoupled(atmosphere-only)andcoupled(ocean-atmosphere)simulationsbytheClimateForecastSystem,version2(CFSv2),toexaminethislinkageduringtheNorthernHemispherewinter,focusingonthesimulationoftheobservedsurfacecoolingtrendoverEurasiaduringthelastthreedecades.TheuncoupledsimulationsareAtmosphericModelIntercomparisonProject(AMIP)runsforcedwithmeanseasonalcyclesofseasurfacetemperature(SST)andseaice,usingcombinationsofSSTandseaicefromdifferenttimeperiodstoassesstherolethateachplaysinpidually,andtoassesstheroleofatmosphericinternalvariability.Coupledrunsareusedtofurtherinvestigatetheroleofinternalvariabilitvviatheanalysisofinitializednredictionsandtheevolutionoftheforecastwithleadtime.