Distributional dynamic and trend evolution of China’s agricultural carbon emissions-an analysis on panel data of 31 provinces from 2002 to 2011

Researchingthedynamicdistributioncharacteristicsandtrendevolutionofagriculturalcarbonemissionsisofconsiderablesignificanceinformulatinganeffectiveagriculturalcarbonreductionpolicy.Basedonmeasurementofagriculturalcarbonemissionsof31provincesovertheperiod2002-2011,thestudyobservedregionaldifferencesandthedynamicevolutionofdistributionofagriculturalcarbonemissionsusingagriculturalcarbonintensityastheindicator,accompaniedbyGinicoefficientsandthekerneldensityestimationmethod.TheresultsdemonstratefirstthatagriculturalcarbonemissionsforChinashowanobviousnonequilibriumnatureinregardtospatialdistribution.Accordingtothedifferencesinagriculturalcarbonemissionsdynamictrends,wedividedthe31regionsintofourtypes-continuousdecline,fluctuatingdecline,continuousincrease,andfluctuatingincrease.Further,agriculturalcarbonemissionsintensityshowedadownwardtrendwithsignificantdifferencesintheresearchareas.Second,thegapinspatialdistributionofnationalagriculturalcarbonemissionsisgraduallyexpandingbasedontheresultscalculatedbyGinicoefficient.Fromtheperceptionofregionaldifferencesinagriculturalcarbonemissions,theeasternregionshowedanaveragelevel,thegapwasmoreobviousinthecentralregion,whilewesternregionshowedatrendoffluctuatingdownward.Third,accordingtoestimationbykerneldensity,theregionaldisparityinagriculturalcarbonemissionshadadownward,butlimited,trend.Inregardtoagriculturalcarbonemissionsoverthethreeareas,theregionalgapnotonlytendedtodecreasebutalsoshoweda"fourway"differentiationphenomenonintheeasternregion.Thedifferenceinthecentralregiondifferencewasnarrower.Onthewhole,thegapforthewesternregionreducedsteadilyoverasmallrange.