Sensitivity Experiments of an Eastward-Moving Southwest Vortex to Initial Perturbations

(整期优先)网络出版时间:2003-04-14
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Whethertheinitialconditionscontainpronouncedmesoscalesignalsisimportanttothesimulationofthesouthwestvortex.Aneastward-movingsouthwestvortexissimulatedusingthePSU/NCARMM5.Amodestdegreeofsuccessisachieved,butthemostseriousfailureisthattheformationanddisplacementofthesimulatedvortexinitsearlyphaseareaboutfourteenhourslaterthantheobservedvortex.Consideringtherelativelysparsedataonthemesoscalevortexandinanattempttounderstandthecauseoftheforecastfailure,anadjointmodelisusedtoexaminethesensitivityofthesouthwestvortextoperturbationsofinitialconditions.Theadjointsensitivityindicateshowsmallperturbationsofmodelvariablesattheinitialtimeinthemodeldomaincaninfluencethevortex.Alargesensitivityforzonalwindislocatedunder400hPa,alargesensitivityformeridionalwindislocatedunder500hPa,alargesensitivityfortemperatureislocatedbetween500and900hPa,andalmostallofthelargesensitivityareasarelocatedinthesouthwesternarea.Basedontheadjointsensitivityresults,perturbationsareaddedtoinitialconditionstoimprovethesimulationofthesouthwestvortex.Theresultsshowthattheinitialconditionswithperturbationscansuccessfullysimulatetheformationanddisplacementofthevortex;thewindperturbationsaddedtotheinitialconditionsappeartobeacyclonecirculationunderthemiddleleveloftheatmosphereinthesouthwesternareawithananticyclonecirculationtoitssouthwest;awatervaporperturbationaddedtoinitialconditionscanstrengthenthevortexandthespeedofitsdisplacement.