EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF THE ROLE OF INITIAL AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS IN MESOSCALE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION

(整期优先)网络出版时间:2003-02-12
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BasedontherealcaseofafrontalprecipitationprocessaffectingSouthChina,27controllednumericalexperimentswasmadefortheeffectsofhydrostaticandnon-hydrostaticeffects,differentdrivingmodels,combinationsofinitial/boundaryconditions,updatesoflateralvaluesandinitialtimelevelsofforecast,onmodelpredictions.Featuresabouttheimpactofinitial/boundaryconditionsonmesoscalenumericalweatherprediction(NWP)modelareanalyzedanddiscussedindetail.Sometheoreticallyandpracticallyvaluableconclusionsaredrawn.ItisfoundthattheoveralltendencyofmesoscaleNWPmodelsisgovernedbyitsdrivingmodel,withtheinitialconditionsshowingremarkableimpactsonmesoscalemodelsforthefirst10hoursofthepredictionswhileleavinglateralboundaryconditionstotakecaretheperiodbeyond;thelatteraffecttheinnerareaofmesoscalepredictionsmainlythroughthepropagationandmovementofweathersignals(waves)ofdifferenttimescales;initialvaluesofexternalmodelparameterssuchassoilmoisturecontentmayaffectpredictionsofmorelongertimevalidity,whilefastsignalsmaybefilteredawayandonlyinformationwithtimescale4timesaslargeasormorethantheupdatedperiodofboundaryvaluesmaybeintroduced,throughlateralboundary,tomesoscalemodels,etc.Someresultsmaybetakenasimportantguidanceonmesoscalemodelanditsdataassimilationdevelopmentsofthefuture.