FORECASTING AUTOMOBILE WARRANTY PERFORMANCE IN PRESENCE OF ‘MATURING DATA' PHENOMENA USING MULTILAYER PERCEPTRON NEURAL NETWORK

(整期优先)网络出版时间:2005-02-12
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Automobilecompaniesthatspendbillionsofdollarsannuallytowardswarrantycost,givehighprioritytowarrantyreductionprograms.Forecastingofautomobilewarrantyperformanceplaysanimportantroletowardstheseefforts.Theforecastingprocessinvolvespredictionofnotonlythespecificmonths-in-service(MIS)warrantyperformanceatcertainfuturetime,butalsoatfutureMISvalues.However,'maturingdata'(alsocalledwarrantygrowth)phenomenathatcauseswarrantyperformanceatspecificMISvaluestochangewithtime,makessuchaforecastingtaskchallenging.Althoughwarrantyforecastingmethodssuchaslog-logplotsanddynamiclinearmodelsappearinthispaperweuseanartificialneuralnetworkfortheforecastingofwarrantyperformanceinpresencetestingerrorsusingresponsesurfacemethodology.Thisapplicationshowstheeffectivenessofneuralphenomena.