PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF EFFECTS OF OLR FIELDS ON ANNUAL FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN FUJIAN

(整期优先)网络出版时间:2001-01-11
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OutgoingLongwaveRadiation(OLR)hasbeenshowntoplayanimportantroleinclimaticdiagnosisandlong-termpredictionandresearch.WiththeOLRdata1974~1997asobservedbysatellites,thecharacteristicsarecomputed.TheresultsareusedtodepictthelocationandintensityofthesubtropicalhighinthestudyoftherelationshipbetweentheannualfrequencyoftropicalcyclonesaffectingtheFujianprovinceandITCZ/subtropicalhigh.Itisshownthatinyearsoffewer(more)tropicalcyclones,theITCZissouthward(northward)locatedwithweaker(stronger)intensity,andthesubtropicalhighissouthward(northward).AsshownintherelationshipbetweentheanomalousyearsoftropicalcyclonesandcharacteristicsofprecedingOLRfields,theOLRanomaliesarejustoppositelydistributedinthePacificOceanforyearsofmore(fewer)tropicalcyclones.Inotherwords,theyearsoffewer(more)tropicalcyclonesareassociatedwithpositiveanomaliesofOLRinthetropicalwestPacificbutnegative(positive)anomaliesintheequatorialcentralandeasternPacific.Itishopedthatourstudybesettingfoundationforshort-termclimatologicalpredictionoftropicalcyclones.