Simulation evaluation and future prediction of the IPCC --AR4 GCMs on the extreme temperatures in China

(整期优先)网络出版时间:2008-03-13
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Onthebasisofthetemperatureobservationsduring1961-2000inChina,sevencoupledgeneralcirculationmodels'(GCMs)extremetemperatureproductsareevaluatedsuppliedbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange's4thAssessmentReport(IPCC-AR4).Theextremetemperatureindicesinusearefrostdays(FD),growingseasonlength(GSL),extremetemperaturerange(ETR),warmnights(TN90),andheatwavedurationindex(HWDI).Resultsindicatethatallthesevenmodelsarecapableofsimulatingspatialandtemporalvariationsintemperaturecharacteristics,andtheirensembleactsmorereliablethananysingleone.Amongthesevenmodels,GFDL-CM2.0andMIROC3.2performancesaremuchbetter.Besides,mostofthemodelsareabletopresentlineartrendsofthesamepositive/negativesignsastheobservationsbutforweakerintensities.Thesimulationeffectsaredifferentonanationwidebasis,with110°Nasthepision,east(west)ofwhichtheeffectsarebetter(worse)andthepoorerovertheQinghai-TibetanPlateauinChina.Thepredictionsforthe21stcenturyonemissionsscenariosshowthatexceptdecreasesintheFDandETR,otherindicesdisplaysignificantincreasingtrend,especiallyfortheindicesofHWDIandTN90,whichrepresentthenotableextremeclimate.Thisindicatesthatthetemperature-relatedclimateismovingtowardstheextreme.Inthelate21stcentury,theGSLandTN90(HWDI)increasemostnotablyinsouthwestChina(theQinghai-TibetanPlateau),andtheFDdecreasemostremarkablyintheQinghai-TibetanPlateau,northwestandnortheastofChina.ApartfromSouthChina,theyearlychangerangeoftheextremetemperatureisreducedinmostofChina.