THE INFLUENCE OF ARCTIC AND ANTARCTIC ICE ON SOUTHERN OSCILLATION

(整期优先)网络出版时间:1999-04-14
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TheanalysisoftherelationshipbetweenseaiceinArcticandAntarctic,andtheSouthernOscillationIndex(SOI)variationonthetemporalscaleofmonth,seasonandyearismadeinthispaper.ThenegativecorrelationbetweenseaiceinArcticandtheSOI.andthepositivecorrelationbetweenseaiceinAntarcticandtheSOIarefound.ThevariationofseaiceinAntarcticPacificseemstoplayanimportantroleintheinfluencetoatmosphere.Theirnonlinearrelationshipspresentmorestronglythanthelinearrelationshipbetweenthem.TherelationshipbetweenseaiceinArcticandAntarcticandtheSOIintheearlystageisinvestigated.Theirvariationshowsperiodicphenomena.ThemaximumcorrelationisusedtobuildthemodelforforecastingthevariationoftheSOIontheconditionoftheseaiceinArcticandAntarctic.Theexplainedvarianceofthesimulatedseriesisgreaterthan0.90.Thereexistsa17-monthperiodintherelationshipbetweenseaiceinArcticandAntarcticandSOI.Theexistingofthecommonfactorwithlargerscaleisdiscussedinthispaper.