Gravity Changes Before Large Earthquakes in China: 1998-2005

(整期优先)网络出版时间:2011-01-11
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Althoughitiswellknownthatcoseismicgravitychangestakeplaceduringanearthquake,previousresearchhasnotyieldedconvincingevidencedemonstratingthatsignificantgravitychangesoccurbeforelargeearthquakes.Furthermore,evenifwesuspectthatgravitychangesoccurbeforelargeearthquakes,wehaveyettodemonstratehowtoconsistentlyobservethesechangesforusefulearthquakeforecastthatwouldbringbenefitstosociety.Weanalyzedgroundgravitysurveydataobtainedin1998,2000,2002,and2005atstationsoftheCrustalMovementObservationNetworkofChina(CMONOC)andexaminedgravitychangesbe-foretheoccurrenceofninelarge(Ms≥6.8)earthquakesthatrupturedwithinornearmainlandChinaandTaiwanfromNovember2001toAugust2008.Resultsfromthisanalysisshowthatsignificantgravitychangesoccurredacrossalargeregionbeforeeachoftheseninelargeearthquakes,andthesechangesweredetectedbyrepeatedgroundgravitysurveysthroughCMONOC.Althoughthesegravitychangesweresignificant,moreresearchisneededtoinvestigatewhetherthesegravitychangescouldbeviewedasprecursorsoflargeearthquakes.Limitationsanduncertaintiesinthedataincludesparsenessofthegravitymonitoringnetwork,longtimeintervalsbetweenconsecutivegravitysurveys,inevitablemeasurementerrors,hydrologicaleffectsongravity,andeffectsofverticalcrustalmovementsongravity.Basedontheseobservations,wemakeseveralrecommendationsaboutpossiblefuturedirec-tionsinearthquake-relatedresearchusinggravitymonitoringdata.