简介:Inthepastfewyears,theEuropeanUnionhasbeenplaguedbydifficultiesfromboththeinteriorandexterior.Thesituationhasgrownworserecentlywithcrisesandoverlappingproblems:Brexit,therefugeecrisis,thebankingcrisis.TheEUislikeagreatmansiononthepointofcollapse.ThefirstproblemislossofdirectionwhenitcomestoEuropean
简介:TheenduringGreekcrisishasbruisedmutualtrustandheighteneduneasebetweenEUmembers.Itisareflectionofdeep-seatedproblemswith,andconflictover,Europeanintegrationandinvolvesharminflictedondemocraticprinciples,andtherevivalofnationalism.However,thecrisishasalsodemonstratedtheEurozone'sresilienceandabilitytohandlepressure.German-ledpoliciesoffiscalausterityandstructuralreformhavebeenprotected.Integrationwillproceedinaroundaboutmanner.
简介:Lastyear'seconomicgrowthintheEuropeanUnion,renewaloftheFranco-Germanaxis,andEUcohesioninresponsetoDonaldTrumpandBrexitoughttobehealthysignsofrecovery,butpopulism'srestraintaffectsEUintegration.IfthefalloutfromBrexitisanymeasureofthefuture,inconsistentleadershipwillbeforcedtododgeinternalandexternalcomplicationsforsometime,astheEUfacesintractablepoliticalandeconomicpressurefrommultipleparties.Althoughseparationandintegrationneednotremaindiametricalpoles,thedestiny,internationalstatus,andinfluenceoftheEUandmemberstateshasbeenpredicatedonintegration.Givencurrenteconomicanddemographicfactors,enhancingtheUnion'sattractivenesswhilehandlingotherissueswillmaketheEUaweakglobalactor.Lackingconfidence,strategiccohesionandprotectivedefenses,theEUinforthcomingyearscouldwitnessnosignificantprogress.EUmemberstatesarehauntedbypopulism,terrorism,extremismandeconomicinequality.Sino-EUrelationswillseecontinuedcooperationwithariskofturbulence.
简介:TheEU'sstrategyforRussiasincetheendofthecoldwarhastoalargeextentfailed,andthedirectconsequencesarethecurrentlydeadlockedEU-Russiarelationship.Therearethreereasonsforthis:theEUandRussia'srespectivestrengthandstatusrelativetoeachotherhavebeenchangingsincethebeginningofthiscentury;theEU'sstrategytowardsRussiahasbeenmorefragmentinginrecentlyyears;andtheAmericanfactor.TheEU-Russiarelationscouldcontinuetobeinpoorshapeintheyearstocome,anditisverylikelysometimesevenfurtherworsening.Butthetwosideswouldrefrainfromextrememeasuresandpreventtheirrelationsfromslidingintorealcoldwar.