简介：用分析，数据由大气的研究的环境预言/公民中心的美国国家中心提供了，在ElNino南部的摆动(ENSO)周期之间的潜在的关系和在从1950～2008的欧亚大陆(乌拉尔，贝加尔湖，和鄂霍次克海)的三个关键区域的堵住的高度被分析。500hPageopotential高度地的合成分析在ElNino的冬季在ENSO的不同阶段期间揭示那(在)年，有在三个关键区域的geopotential高度的重要否定异例。在拉·尼娜(行)年的冬季，在另一方面，geopotential高度的重要积极异例在东方乌拉尔，贝加尔湖，和鄂霍次克海被观察。在夏天，鄂霍次克海展出积极异例，它在一行年的发展中的阶段期间由学生的t测试在90%的信心水平是重要的。在一EN年的发展中的阶段，在500hPa的geopotential高度地表明积极(否定)在贝加尔湖(乌拉尔和鄂霍次克海)的异例，当在500hPa的geopotential高度地展出时积极(否定)在乌拉尔和鄂霍次克海(贝加尔湖)的异例在腐烂的阶段期间在并且行年。然而，这些反常在一在年发展是不足道的，在一腐烂的行年的年，和夏天腐烂。由在ENSO周期的不同阶段期间分析500hPageopotential高度地，案例研究的结果与合成analysis.Annual一般水准堵住的那些一致，这被观察同样与合成分析和案例研究从1950～2008.Combined在ENSO的不同阶段期间被检验，结果显示在三个关键区域的堵住被压制(提高)在冬季期间在(行)年。在夏天，在三个关键区域的堵住上的ENSO的影响在冬季不象那一样重要。显然，开发行可以在堵住上在Okhotsk.Influence因素提高堵住各种各样、复杂。这份报纸显示堵住上的ENSO的影响不能被忽视，并且它对作为一个潜在的信号的相关运作的预报关键。

简介：TheNCEP/NCARreanalysisdatasetsandClimatePredictionCenter(CPC)MergedAnalysisofPrecipitation(CMAP)raindataareusedtoinvestigatethelargescaleseasonaltransitionofEastAsiansubtropicalmonsoon(EASM)anditspossiblemechanism.ThekeyregionofEASMisdefinedaccordingtotheseasonaltransitionfeatureofmeridionalwind.Bycombiningthe’thermalwind’formulaandthe’thermaladaptation’equation,anew’thermal-wind-precipitation’relationisdeduced.Theareameanwinddirectionsandthermaladvectionsindifferentseasonsareanalyzedanditisshownthatinsummer(winter)monsoonperiod,theaveragedwinddirectionintheEASMregionvariesclockwise(anticlockwise)withaltitude,andtheEASMregionisdominatedbywarm(cold)advection.TheseasonaltransitionofthewinddirectionatdifferentlevelsandthecorrespondingmeridionalcirculationconsistentlyindicatesthatthesubtropicalsummermonsoonisestablishedbetweentheendofMarchandthebeginningofApril.Finally,aconceptualschematicexplanationforthemechanismofseasonaltransitionofEASMisproposed.

简介：用NCEP/NCAR每日的分析数据和SCSMEX数据，调查从在向西和平的副热带的高度(WPSH)并且基于完全的垂直涡度方程的在1998年6月的明显的加热的位置变化之间的关系被带。Itis发现非断热的加热与气候的吝啬的地位在WPSH.In比较的位置变化起一个重要作用，非断热的加热的垂直变化在在1998年6月的WPSH的北方方面是更强壮的，但是在WPSH的南方方面更弱。加热的anomalousnon制服在印度支那Peninsulaand华南海区域在华南，到theYangtze和它的中间降低山谷的南方的区域，而是异常逆旋风的涡度导致异常气旋的涡度比平均数导致WPSH的更向南方的位置。

简介：坚持障碍指在一个特定的季节显示出快速、重要的衰落的海表面温度异例(SSTA)的lag关联，不管开始的月。这暗示在为在这个特定的季节的SSTA的预报技巧有减少。这篇论文从interannual-interdecadal时间规模的观点在华南海(SCS)和它的邻近的区域为SSTA的坚持障碍调查可能的原因。结果证明SSTA的坚持障碍赤道向南不仅在SCS，而且在印度尼西亚的附近存在。SCS障碍发生在10月11月附近，当在印度尼西亚区域的障碍的出现在11月12月附近时。为这二个区域，坚持障碍的出现仔细与被联系内部SSTA的十的可变性，以及内部年度可变性。如果，在SCS和印度尼西亚区域的坚持障碍不独自存在内部，十的可变性没被考虑SSTA有不到4个月的短记忆，不管开始的月。而且，影响内部在SCS和印度尼西亚区域的SSTA的坚持障碍上的SSTA的十的可变性可以在印度洋和西方的太平洋与SSTA被联系，但是仔细没与和平的十的摆动被联系。然而与ENSO的春天坚持障碍(SPB)相比，在在SCS和印度尼西亚区域的坚持障碍之间的靠近的关系并且内部十的可变性是唯一的，自从ENSO，SPB没被如此的可变性显著地影响。另外，尽管坚持障碍在SCS和印度尼西亚区域在强壮的ENSO盒子中是相当明显的，内部SSTA的十的可变性也在这种关系中起一个非可以忽略的作用。

简介：以便在Leizhou半岛上在雷雨的发展频率上研究植物分发的调整的可能的影响，数学统计方法包括关联分析，11种恰当的模型和所有变量回归方法，被用于分析和研究。年度雷雨天的数字的平均趋势显然正在下，并且在所有季节，温暖的正午以后的雷雨在收起大多数部分有雷雨的结果表演，和高频率从5月被发现到9月，并且雷雨的开始并且结束的日期有大年度差异。植被结构与稻田的减小和甘蔗并且水果种的区域增长一起被改进了，它导致雷雨天的数字的减少；在冬季的特征的变化业余领域，被种蔬菜引起，在早冬季和迟了的春天限制雷雨的形成。同时，花生种的区域调整几乎没在雷雨天的变化上有小影响。主要庄稼分发的调整例如米饭，甘蔗，水果和蔬菜，可以在雷雨的形成上有明显的影响，并且甘蔗有最大的效果，由米饭，蔬菜和水果接着列在后面，并且庄稼分发的调整几乎没在雷雨的开始并且结束的日期上有小影响。

简介：

简介：AftercompositingthreerepresentativeENSOindices,ElNioeventshavebeendividedintoaneasternpattern(EP)andacentralpattern(CP).ByusingEOF,correlationandcompositeanalysis,therelationshipandpossiblemechanismsbetweenIndianOceanDipole(IOD)andtwotypesofElNiowereinvestigated.IODevents,originatingfromIndo-Pacificscaleair-seainteraction,arecomposedoftwomodes,whichareassociatedwithEPandCPElNiorespectively.TheIODmoderelatedtoEPElNioevents(namedasIOD1)isstrongestatthedepthof50to150malongtheequatorialIndianOcean.Besides,itshowsaquasi-symmetricdistribution,strongerinthesouthoftheEquator.TheIODmodeassociatedwithCPElNio(namedasIOD2)hasstrongestsignalintropicalsouthernIndianOceansurface.Intermsofmechanisms,beforeEPElNiopeaks,anomalousWalkercirculationproducesstronganomalouseasterliesinequatorialIndianOcean,resultinginupwellingintheeast,decreasingseatemperaturethere;acoupleofanomalousanticyclones(strongerinthesouth)formofftheEquatorwherewarmwateraccumulates,andthustheIOD1occurs.WhenCPElNiodevelops,anomalousWalkercirculationisweakerandshiftsitscentertothewest,thereforeanomalouseasterliesinequatorialIndianOceanislessstrong.Besides,theanticyclonesouthofSumatrastrengthens,andthesoutherlieseastofitbringcoldwaterfromhigherlatitudesandnortherlieswestofitbringwarmwaterfromlowerlatitudestothe15°to25°Szone.Meanwhile,thereexistsstrongdivergenceintheeastandconvergenceinthewestpartoftropicalsouthernIndianOcean,makingseatemperaturefallandriseseparately.Therefore,IOD2liesfarthersouth.

简介：ByusingNCEPGODASmonthlyseasurfaceheight(SSH)and160-stationmonthlyprecipitationdatainChina,theseasonalandinterannualcharacteristicsofSSHareanalyzedoverthetropicalPacific,andcorrelationsbetweenSSHandsummerrainfallarediscussed.Theresultsareshownasfollows:(1)ThetropicalPacificSSHtakesona'V'patternintheclimaticfieldwithaneastwardopening,anditishigherinthewesternpart(inthenorthwesternpart)thanintheeasternpart(inthesouthwesternpart).Thehigh-valueareasaremorestableinthenorthwest,andthevaluerange(greaterthan0.8m)islargerinspringandsummerthaninautumnandwinter.Thehigh-valueareainthesouthwesternpartisthelargest(smallest)andmorenortherly(southerly)inspring(summer).SSHishigherinspringandautumnthaninsummerandwinterovertheequatorialzone.(2)TheinterannualanomaliesoftheSSHarethestrongestoverthetropicalwesternandsouthwesternPacificandarestrongerinwinterandspringthaninsummerandautumn.TheinterannualanomaliesarealsostrongovertheequatorialmiddleandeasternPacific.Thedistributionrangesarelargerandtheintensitiesarestrongerintheautumnandwinter.ThereisacloserelationshipbetweentheSSHinterannualanomaliesandENSOeventsinautumn,winterandspring.(3)WhenENSOeventstakeplaceinwinter,accordingtothesimultaneousrelationshipamongthetropicPacificSSH,850hPawindfieldsandthesummerprecipitationofChina,itcanbepredictedthattheprecipitationwillbesignificantlymorethannormaloverthesouthoftheYangtzeRiver,especiallyoverDongtingLakeandPoyangLakeregion,easternQinghai-TibetPlateau,Yangtze-HuaiRiverValley,easternpartofInnerMongoliaandlessthannormalovertheareaofGreatBandofYellowRiver,NorthChinaandSouthChinainsuccessivesummers.

简介：TheestablishmentoftheSouth-Asianhigh(SAH)inAprilandMayovertheIndochinaPeninsula(IP)isinvestigatedbasedontheERA-40reanalysisdata.TheresultshowsthattheSAHisgeneratedandstrengthenedovertheIPlocally,ratherthanmovingwestwardtotheIPfromtheWesternPacific.AftertheSAHestablishmentthetropicaluppertropospherictrough(TUTT)formsabovetheoceantotheeastofthePhilippines.WehavefoundthattheprincipaltriggeringfactorofboththeSAHconstructionandtheTUTTformationisthevariationintheSouthernAsianatmosphericdiabaticheatingregime.InlateApril,boththeclimbingeffectofShanPlateauandthelocalsurfacesensibleheatingcontributetolocalrainfallovertheIP.Thenthelocalupdraftandupper-airdivergencearestrengthened,beingresponsiblefortheSAHformedinthesouthernpartoftheIP.AsconvectionmovesnorthwardalongtheAustralian-Asian"maritimecontinent"andtheBayofBengal(BoB)summermonsoonbegins,theconvectionisintensifiedinMayontheeasternBoB.ThestrongconvectionresultsintheSAHenhancingandexpandingwestward,accompaniedbyreinforcedmeridionalflowtotheeastofSAH,whereresponsesofthecirculationtodiabaticheatingarriveataquasi-steadystate.Meanwhile,becauseofthepositivegeopotentialvorticityadvectionresultingfromupperequatorwardflow,thelocalpositiverelativevorticityincreasesovertheoceantotheeastofthePhilippines,makingthetropicaluppertropospherictrough(TUTT)formaround150°E.

简介：PossiblerelationshipsbetweenMJOandthesevererain-snowweatherinEasternChinaduringNovemberof2009areanalyzedandresultsshowthatastrongMJOprocessisoneofthestrongimpactfactors.MJOisveryactiveovertheIndianOceaninNovember2009.Especially,itmaintains9daysinMJOphase3,justcorrespondingtothetwostrongestrain-snowprocesses.CompositesofMJOeventsshowthatwhentheMJOconvectivecenterislocatedovertheIndianOcean,theprobabilityofrainfallissignificantlyincreasedandthetemperatureislowerthannormalineasternChina,whichisconsistentwiththesituationinNovemberof2009.Atmosphericcirculationanomaliesofmid-andhigher-latitudescanbeinfluencedbythetropicalMJOconvectionforcingandthisinfluencecouldberealizedbyteleconnection.WhentheMJOisovertheIndianOcean,itisfavorableforthemaintenanceofacirculationpatternoftworidgesversusonetroughatmid-andhigher-latitudes.Meanwhile,thewesternPacificsubtropicalhighisstrongerandmorewestwardthannormal,andasignificantconvectivebeltappearsovereasternEastAsia.AllthesecirculationanomaliesshowninthecompositeresultalsoappearedintheobservationsinNovember2009,whichindicatesthegeneralfeaturesofrelationshipsbetweentheMJOandthecirculationanomaliesovertheextratropics.Besidesthezonalcirculationanomalies,theMJOconvectioncanalsoleadtomeridionalcirculationanomalies.WhentheMJOconvectionislocatedovertheIndianOcean,thewesternPacificisdominatedbyanomalousdescendingmotion,andtheeasternEastAsiaiscontrolledbystrongconvergenceandascendingmotion.Therefore,ananomalousmeridionalcirculationisformedbetweenthetropicsandmiddlelatitudes,enhancingthenorthwardtransportationoflow-levelmoisture.Itispotentiallyhelpfultounderstandingandevenforecastingsuchkindofrain-snowweatheranomaliesasthatinNovember2009usingMJO.

简介：这份报纸调查与轨道预报了使用全球/地区性的吸收和预言系统(葡萄)的热带气旋(TC)联系的错误的可能的来源。葡萄预报在2008和2009个季节期间在西方的诺思太平洋盆为16landfallingTC被做，与72个小时的预报长度，并且使用缺省起始的条件(initials，此后)，它从NCEP-FNL数据集，以及ECMWFinitials。预报与ECMWF预报相比。当与缺省initials相比使用ECMWFinitials时，结果证明在大多数TC，GRAPES预报被改进。与ECMWFinitials相比，缺省initials生产更低的紧张TC和更低的紧张副热带的高度，而是更高的紧张南亚高度和季风马槽，以及更高的温度但是在TC中心的更低的特定的湿度。有ECMWFinitials在并且在在起始的时间的TC中心附近的geopotential高度和风地的代替被发现是改进预报的最有效的方法。另外，在预报精确性显示出最大的改进的TC通常在TC紧张有最大的起始的无常并且通常在加强的阶段。结果为用葡萄做的TC轨道预报表明起始的紧张的重要性，并且显示模型在比TC的腐烂的阶段描述加强的阶段更好。最后，改进的限制显示与葡萄预报联系的模型错误可以是landfallingTC的差的预报的主要原因。因此，模型错误的进一步的考试被要求。

简介：Thetemporalandspatialvariationsoftheten-daymeansurfacelatentheatflux(TMLH)havebeenanalyzedinthispaperbasedonthedataofNCEPfromJanuaryof1979toDecemberof1995intheSouthChinaSea(SCS)monsoonregion.ItisfoundthatthereexistmaximumcentersofTMLHstandarddeviationinthenorthwestIndochinaandtheIndianPeninsulaaswellasthewesternPacific,SCS,theIndianOceanandtheBayofBengal,andtheirlocationsandstrengthschangesignificantlyduringtheperiodofSCSmonsoononset.ApositivezonaldeviationofTMLHoccursfirstintheIndochinaPeninsula,apparentlyearlierthanthatintheIndianPeninsula.TheappearanceofmaximumpositivezonaldeviationsofTMLHapproximatelycoincideswiththesummermonsoononset.OvertheIndochinaandIndianPeninsulas,theTMLHincreasesgraduallywithasmallamplitudeofvariationbeforetheonsetofsummermonsoon,andtherateofincreaseissignificantlyenhancedaftertheonsetofthemonsoon;whereasovertheocean,TMLHdecreasesbeforethemonsoononset,varieslittleduringtheperiodofmonsoonandincreasesgraduallyaftertheendingofmonsoon.Therefore,itseemsthatthesurfacelatentheatfluxplaysanimportantroleinthemaintenanceofthesummermonsoon,anditsvariationisanphenomenonaccompanyingtheonsetofsummermonsoon.