简介：WesternChinaexperiencedanextremehotsummerin2015,breakinganumberoftemperaturerecords.Thesummermeansurfaceairtemperature(SAT)anomalywastwicetheinterannualvariability.Thehottestdaytimetemperature(TXx)andwarmestnight-timetemperature(TNx)werethehighestinChinasince1964.Thisextremehotsummeroccurredinthecontextofsteadilyincreasingtemperaturesinrecentdecades.Wecarriedoutasetofexperimentstoevaluatetheextenttowhichthechangesinseasurfacetemperature(SST)/seaiceextent(SIE)andanthropogenicforcingdrovetheseverityoftheextremesummerof2015inwesternChina.Ourresultsindicatethatabout65%-72%oftheobservedchangesintheseasonalmeanSATandthedailymaximum(Tmax)anddailyminimum(Tmin)temperaturesoverwesternChinaresultedfromchangesinboundaryforcings,includingtheSST/SIEandanthropogenicforcing.Fortherelativeroleofindividualforcing,thedirectimpactofchangesinanthropogenicforcingexplainabout42%oftheSATwarmingand60%(40%)oftheincreaseinTNxandTmin(TXxandTmax)inthemodelresponse.ThechangesinSST/SIEcontributedtotheremainingsurfacewarmingandtheincreaseinhotextremes,whicharemainlytheresultofchangesintheSSToverthePacificOcean,whereasuperElNi?oeventoccurred.OurstudyindicatesaprominentroleforthedirectimpactofanthropogenicforcingintheseverityoftheextremehotsummerinwesternChinain2015,althoughthechangesinSST/SIE,aswellastheinternalvariabilityoftheatmosphere,alsomadeacontribution.

简介：

简介：AwesternNorthPacifictropicalcyclone(TC)intensitypredictionscheme(WIPS)isdevelopedbasedonTCsamplesfrom1996to2002usingthestepwiseregressiontechnique,withthewesternNorthPacificdividedintothreesub-regions:theregionnearthecoastofEastChina(ECR),theSouthChinaSearegion(SCR),andthefaroceanicregion(FOR).OnlytheTCswithmaximumsustainedsurfacewindspeedgreaterthan17.2ms1areusedinthescheme.Potentialpredictorsincludetheclimatologyandpersistencefactors,synopticenvironmentalconditions,potentialintensityofaTCandproximityofaTCtoland.VariancesexplainedbytheselectedpredictorssuggestthatthepotentialintensityofaTCandtheproximityofaTCtolandaresignificantinalmostalltheforecastequations.OtherimportantpredictorsincludeverticalwindshearinECR,500-hPageopotentialheightanomalyattheTCcenter,zonalcomponentofTCtranslationspeedinSCR,intensitychangeofTC12or24hpriortoinitialtime,andthelongitudeofTCcenterinFOR.IndependenttestsarecarriedoutforTCsin4yr(2004-2007),withmeanabsoluteerrorsofthemaximumsurfacewindbeing3.0,5.0,6.5,7.3,7.6,and7.9ms1for12-to72-hpredictionsat12-hintervals,respectively.Positiveskillsareobtainedatallleadingtimelevelsascomparedtotheclimatologyandpersistencepredictionscheme,andthelargeskillscores(nearorover20%)after36himplythatWIPSperformsespeciallybetteratlongerleadingtimes.Furthermore,itisfoundthattheamendmentinTCtrackpredictionandreal-timemodelanalysiscansignificantlyimprovetheperformanceofWIPSintheSCRandECR.FutureimprovementswillfocusonapplyingtheschemeforweakeningTCsandthosenearthecoastalregions.

简介：基于最好轨道的数据和JRA-25分析，热带气旋(TC)的西方的向北和平的热带以外的转变(et)的气候学在这份报纸被介绍。它被发现那35%(318从912)所有，TC在1979期间经历了et-2008。温暖季节(通过9月的6月)et与大多数说明64%所有et事件在9月的出现。区域120楶祴搠湥楳祴眠獡挠潬敳祬挠牯敲慬整?潴琠敨漠獢牥敶???捡畣畭慬楴敶爠楡普污l

简介：Mesoscaleconvectivesystems(MCSs)areseveredisaster-producingweathersystems.PreviousattemptsofMCScensusaremadebyexamininginfraredsatelliteimageriesartificially,withsubjectivityinvolvedintheprocessunavoidably.Thismethodisalsoinefficientandtime-consuming.ThedisadvantagesmakeitimpossibletodoMCScensusoverAsiaandwesternPacificregion(AWPR)withanextendedspanoftime,whichisnotfavorableforgainingadeeperinsightintothesesystems.Inthispaper,afire-newautomaticMCSidentification(AMI)methodisusedtocapturefourcategoriesofMCSswithdifferentsizesandshapesfromnumericalsatelliteinfrareddata.47,468MCSsareidentifiedoverAsiaandwesternPacificregionduringthewarmseason(MaytoOctober)from1995to2008.Basedonthisdatabase,MCScharacteristicssuchasshape,size,duration,velocity,geographicaldistribution,intermonthlyvariation,andlifecyclearestudied.ResultsindicatethatthenumberoflinearMCSsis2.5timesthatofcircularMCSs.Theformerisofalargersizewhilethelatterisofalongerduration.The500hPasteeringflowplaysanimportantroleintheMCSmovement.MCSstendtomovefasteraftertheyreachthemaximumextent.FourcategoriesofMCShavesimilarcharacteristicsofgeographicaldistributionandintermonthlyvariation.Basically,MCSsarezonallydistributed,withthreezonesweakeningfromsouthtonorth.TheintermonthlyvariationofMCSsisrelatedtotheseasonaladjustmentofthelarge-scalecirculation.AstotheMCSsoverChina,theyhavedifferentlifecyclecharacteristicsoverdifferentareas.MCSsoverplateausandhillareas,withonlyonepeakintheirlifecyclecurves,tendtoformintheafternoon,matureatnightfall,anddissipateatnight.Ontheotherhand,MCSsoverplains,whichhaveseveralpeaksintheirlifecyclecurves,mayformeitherintheafternoonoratnight,whereasMCSsovertheoceanstendtoformatmidnight.Affectedbythesea-landbreezecirculation,MCSsoverc

简介：大气、海洋的条件在西方的向北和平的热带气旋(TC)的生命周期的不同阶段期间被检验，与理解环境怎么影响在这个区域的TC的紧张变化的意愿。内在的海表面温度(SST)什么时候比26高，被发现增强通常发生

简介：Inthispaper,usinganonlinearlow-orderbarotropicsystemwithorographyandmomentumforcingaswellasdissipation,wehavetheoreticallycalculatedthetwokindsofcurvesfortheseasonalnorthwardmovementofsubtropicalhighs.Ithasbeenshownthatthetheoreticalresultsresemblebasicallywiththeanalysedresultsofwavespectrumdata.

简介：

简介：TropicalCyclone(TC)tracksoverthewesternNorthPacific(WNP)during1949–2007,obtainedfromChinaMeteorologicalAdministration/ShanghaiTyphooninstitute,areclassifiedintothreetracktypes.ThesetypesarethemainpathwaysbywhichTCsinfluencethecoastofEastAsia.Therelationshipsbetweenlocalseasurfacetemperature(SST)inWNPandTCtracksarerevealed.ResultsshowthatthelocalSSTplaysanimportantroleinTCtracks,thoughtherelationshipsbetweenlocalSSTandthefrequenciesofdifferentTCtracksareverydissimilar.ThelocalSSThassignificantpositivecorrelationwithnorthwest-pathTCs,andnegativecorrelationwithrecurving-pathTCs.However,thewest-pathTCsdonothavestatisticallysignificantrelationshipwiththelocalSST.TheupperseatemperatureanomalieswhichinfluenceTCtrackslastaboutsixmonthsbeforeTCoccurrence.FurtheranalysisindicatesthattheoceanconditionsinfluenceTCtracksbymodifyingtheatmosphericcirculation,andthenthemodifiedatmosphericcirculationcanaffectTC’sgenesislocationandmotion.

简介：Theinfluenceoftheinterannualvariationofcross-equatorialflow(CEF)ontropicalcyclogenesisoverthewesternNorthPacific(WNP)isexaminedinthispaperbyusingthetropicalcyclone(TC)besttrackdatafromtheJointTyphoonWarningCenterandtheJRA-25reanalysisdataset.TheresultsshowedthatthenumberofTCsformingtotheeastof140°EoverthesoutheasternpartofthewesternNorthPacific(WNP)isinhighlypositivecorrelationwiththevariationoftheCEFnear125°Eand150°E,i.e.,thenumberoftropicalcyclogenesesincreaseswhenthecross-equatorialflowsarestrong.CompositeanalysesshowedthatduringtheyearsofstrongCEF,thevariationsofOLR,verticalwindshearbetween200-850hPa,850hParelativevorticityand200hPadivergencearefavorablefortropicalcyclogenesistotheeastof140°EoverthetropicalWNP,andviceversa.Moreover,itisalsodiscussedfromtheviewofbarotropicenergyconversionthatduringtheyearsofstrongCEF,aneastward-extendedmonsoontroughleadstotherapidgrowthofeddykineticenergyovertheeasternpartofWNP,whichisfavorablefortropicalcyclogenesis;butduringtheyearsofweakCEF,themonsoontroughislocatedwestwardinthewesternpartoftheWNP,consistentwiththegrowthareaofeddykineticenergy.Asaresult,therearefewerTCgenesesovertheeasternpartofWNP.Besides,theabruptstrengtheningofaclose-byCEF2-4daysbeforetropicalcyclogenesismaybetheoneofitstriggers.

简介：根据学习波浪包裹繁殖，这份报纸调查了在高频率波浪包裹繁殖和短暂波浪的发展或副热带的高度的纬度的运动之间的关系。结果证明在冬季期间，波浪包裹的一生为有2-10ms-1的宣传速度的7-10天更长、通常坚持。通常，他们宣传了在开始向东南，然后转到东北。在夏天期间，波浪包裹的一生和紧张变得更短、更弱。它有利马槽的开发(变细)当强壮的波浪包裹中心被加强时(变弱)它与马槽重叠了。如果强壮的波浪包裹中心不停地与山脉重叠，山脉以后将在一些天内减退。向北方的明显的跳(撤退向南方)西方的和平的副热带的高度(WPSH)的过程是(不)通常与在华南海区域(南亚区域和适度的地区)定位5天的强壮的波浪包裹中心有关或更长。在二个季节的跳过程以后，正在坚持强壮的波浪包裹中心5天或更长。WPSH撤退过程象台风，和坚持5天的所有这些中心的强壮的波浪包裹中心一样也与在南方亚洲人区域和适度的区域上的强壮的波浪包裹中心的活动有关或更长。[出版摘要]

简介：在这篇论文，猛抛的特征在一个热对流系统(TCS)遮蔽在8月2日在15:00BT(北京时间)发生在中国的东南的大陆，2003被usingTRMM在中央西方的副热带的和平的反气旋(WSPA)学习热带降雨测量使命PR(precipitution雷达)和红外红外辐射;红外线辐射大小。在horizontal和vertical，在暴风雨顶之中的关系，云顶，和表面雨的猛抛的云结构评价特别地被分析。结果显示出那在500hPa和在处于在为TCSprecipitation发生的动力学和潮湿的中央WSPAsupply必要的条件的850hPa的潮湿流动的强壮的集中的强壮的上升表情。猛抛遮蔽的大多数TCS的水平比例尺关于30-40km的TRMMPR观察表演，他们的平均垂直比例尺在10km，和最大的reaches17.5km上面。那些TCS云的表面附近的最大的雨率在50公里h~以外(-1)。TCS云的吝啬的雨侧面证明它在5km高度的最大的雨率是比环境的估计的结冰水平低的1km。与中央相比放大对流系统(MCS)“98.7.20''，两个系统有从两吝啬的雨侧面，而是TCS显示的最大的雨率的一样的高度比MCS深得多。从到近的表面的最大的雨率的高度，侧面证明在TCS减少的那雨率在MCS是比那快的，它暗示蒸发处理发生在TCS的强壮的微滴。当暴风雨顶更低时，在云顶，暴风雨顶，和表面雨率分析之中的关系显示云顶的一个大变化。相反，越高暴风雨顶，越多一致的云顶和暴风雨顶。并且，越大表面雨率，越higher和为云顶和暴风雨顶一致的更多。在结束，结果暴露那非猛抛的云和晴朗天空的区域部分分别地是86%和2%。猛抛的区域部分遮蔽仅仅关于1/8非猛抛的云的。

简介：是在由三个主要预报中心在西方的诺思太平洋上形成的热带气旋的数字出现在内部年度、内部十的可变性和期刊变化的特征的比较，i.e.China气象学的管理(CMA)，东京(JMA)的地区性的专业化气象学的中心和关岛的联合台风警告中心(JTWC)，有热带气旋(TC)或台风的下列重要的点(1)气候学(TS的紧张上的TC或更强壮)表演

简介：

简介：在夏天，紧张，地点和vertical的不同汇编副热带的高度和早/以后的时间组织它的季节向北跳在中国上引起不同降水模式。因此，副热带的高活动和它的原因在在中国和Chinadrought/flood的原因上的极端气候的事件的出现期间被学习改进预报的天气。自从1990年代，副热带的高活动的物理机制上的许多理论研究被做了，它集中于加热的热带diabatic的效果并且在副热带的高形成和变化上的空间不一致的加热，但是很少考虑动态环境变化的影响在它上由西的系统或副热带的上面的喷气的反常活动产生了。根据动态理论和摘要的原则，此处，在2003的HuaiheRiverfloods上的副热带的高活动和它的影响被分析，并且在副热带的高活动和它的形成机制的西、副热带、热带的循环的反常特征的效果进一步被学习，它被期望对在中国的运作的夏天降雨预报有用。

简介：ＤＩＳＴＲＩＢＵＴＩＯＮＯＦＬＯＷＦＲＥＱＵＥＮＣＹＷＡＶＥＳＩＮＮＯＲＴＨＰＡＣＩＦＩＣＡＮＤＩＮＴＲＡＳＥＡＳＯＮＡＬＡＢＮＯＲＭＡＬＩＴＹＯＦＴＨＥＷＥＳＴＥＲＮＰＡＣＩＦＩＣＳＵＢＴＲＯＰＩＣＡＬＨＩＧＨＬｉＸｉｎｇｌｉａｎｇ（李兴亮）（Ｍｅ...

简介：Thisstudyfocusesonthedecadalvariabilityoftropicalcyclones(TC)overtheWesternNorthPacific(WNP)andhowthesechangesarerelatedtotheMadden-JulianOscillation(MJO).ItwasdonewiththehelpoftheReal-timeMultivariateMJOindexfromtheAustralianGovernmentBureauofMeteorologyoftheCentreforAustralianWeatherandClimateResearch,TCdatafromtheJointTyphoonWarmingCenterbesttrackdatasets,anddailyandmonthlydatasetsfromtheNCEP/NCARreanalysiscenter.TheresultsshowthattheTCfrequencyintheWNPexhibitedastatisticallysignificantdecreaseduring1998-2010comparedtoduring1979-1997.ThedecreaseinTCfrequencyintheWNPmainlyoccurredduringMJOactivephases(i.e.,phases4,5,6,and7).FurtherinvestigationoftheclimatebackgroundandthepropagationdifferencesoftheMJObetween1979-1997and1998-2010wasperformed.TheLaNina-liketropicalseasurfacetemperaturecoolingcausedstrongerWalkercirculationandthusinducedunfavorableatmosphereconditionsforWNPTCgenesisincludingalow-leveleasterlyanomaly,anegativerelativevorticityanomaly,anincreaseinsea-levelpressure,andstrongerverticalwindshear.Moreover,shorteningoftheMJOcycle,declineinthedurationoftheactivephasesintheWNP,andeasterlyanomalyandshrinkageoftheconvectionareaduringMJOactivephasesmayalsopartlyexplainthedecadalvariationofTC.

简介：朱乾根，胡江林ＥｆｆｅｃｔｓｏｎＡｓｉａｎＭｏｎｓｏｏｎｏｆＧｉｇａｎｔｉｃＱｉｎｇｈａｉ－ＸｉｚａｎｇＰｌａｔｅａｕａｎｄＷｅｓｔｅｒｎＰａｃｉｆｉｃＷａｒｍＰｏｏｌ￥ＺｈｕＱｉａｎｇｅｎａｎｄＨｕＪｉａｎｇｌｉｎ（ＮａｎｊｉｎｇＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅ...

简介：Thedifferencesintheclimatologyofextratropicaltransition(ET)ofwesternNorthPacifictropicalcyclones(TCs)wereinvestigatedinthisstudyusingtheTCsbest-trackdatasetsofChinaMeteorologicalAdministration(CMA),JapanMeteorologicalAgency(JMA)andtheJointTyphoonWarningCenter(JTWC).TheresultsshowthattheETidentification,ETcompletiontime,andpost-ETdurationreportedintheJTWCdatasetaregreatlydifferentfromthoseinCMAandJMAdatasetsduring2004-2010.However,thekeydifferencesbetweentheCMAandJMAdatasetsfrom1951to2010aretheETidentificationandthepost-ETduration,becauseofinconsistentobjectiveETcriteriausedinthecenters.FurtheranalysisindicatesthatannualETpercentageofCMAwaslowerthanthatofJMA,andexhibitedaninterannualdecreasingtrend,whilethatofJMAwasanunchangedtrend.ThewesternNorthPacificETeventsoccurredmainlyduringtheperiodJunetoNovember.ThelatitudeofEToccurrenceshiftednorthwardfromFebruarytoAugust,followedbyasouthwardshift.MostofETeventswereobservedbetween35°Nand45°N.Fromaregionalperspective,TCstendedtoundergoETinJapanandtheoceaneasttoit.ItisfoundthatTCswhichexperiencedtheETprocessathigherlatitudesweregenerallymoreintenseattheETcompletiontime.TCscompletingtheEToverlandoroffshorewereweakerthanthosefinishingtheETovertheocean.MostoftheTCsweakened24hbeforethecompletionofET.Incontrast,21%(27%)oftheTCsshowedanintensificationprocessbasedontheCMA(JMA)datasetduringthepost-ETperiod.TheresultspresentedinthisstudyindicatethatconsistentETdeterminationcriteriaareneededtoreducetheuncertaintyinvolvedinETidentificationamongthecenters.

简介：我们在东亚(EA)上在夏天intraseasonal摆动(ISO)的27年的强迫的模拟评估GAMIL1.1.1的表演西方的诺思太平洋(WNP)。评价基于二项措施：climatologicalISO(CISO)和短暂ISO(TISO)。CISO是对年度周期锁阶段并且描述季节的行军的ISO部件。TISO是逐年变化的ISO部件。模型相当捕获ISO的许多观察特征，包括逐步向北方CISO的雨带进展，在华南海菲律宾的海(SCS-PS)和长江盆(YRB)的TISO的主导的频率，向北方3050天的TISO的繁殖并且向西在SCS-PS上的1225天的TISO模式的繁殖，和在YRB上的三个主要TISO模式的带的宣传特征。然而，模型有著名缺乏。这些包括与CISO联系的华南海季风的早发作，太快向北方到40°N和10°N的CISO信号南方的缺席的从20°N的CISO的繁殖，3050天的TISO模式的缺乏的东方繁殖和在YRBTISO模式的向南方的繁殖的缺席。作者发现在ISO模拟的缺乏是仔细与模型在平均数的偏爱有关说，建议模型的改进意味着状态为intraseasonal变化的现实主义的模拟是关键的。