简介:Aprobabilistieprogressivefailureanalyzingmethodisappliedtoestimatingthereliabilityofasimplysupportedlaminatedeompositeplatewithaninitialimperfectionunderbi-axialeompressionload.Theinitialimperfectionandthestrengthparametersareconsideredasrandomvariables.Ply-levelfailureproba-bilityisevaluatedbythefirstorderreliabilitymethod(FORM)togetherwiththeTsai-WustrengtheriterionandTancriterion.Currentstressesinthelaminatedstructurearecalculatedbytheclassicallaminationtheorywiththestiffnessmodifiedbasedonthelaststepplyfailure.Probabilistieallydominantply-levelfailurese-quencesleadingtooverallsystemfailureareidentified,basedonwhichthesystemfailureprobabilityisesti-mated.Anumeriealexampleispresentedtodemonstratethemethodologyproposed.Throughparameterstud-iesitisshownthatthedeviationoftheinitialimperfeetionandsomeofthestrengthparameterslargelyinflu-encethesystemreliability.