简介：ＥＸＰＥＲＩＭＥＮＴＡＬＳＴＵＤＩＥＳＷＩＴＨＡＮＯＰＥＲＡＴＩＯＮＡＬＮＵＭＥＲＩＣＡＬＭＯＤＥＬＦＯＲＰＲＥＤＩＣＴＩＯＮＯＦＴＹＰＨＯＯＮＴＲＡＣＫＳＯＶＥＲＴＨＥＳＯＵＴＨＣＨＩＮＡＳＥＡＲＥＧＩＯＮ￥ＷａｎｇＫａｎｇｌｉｎｇ，ＨｅＡｎｇｕｏ...

简介：AnthropogenicinfluencesonregionalclimateandwaterresourcesoverEastAsiaaresimulatedbyusingaregionalmodelnestedtoaglobalmodel.Thechangesoflanduse/landcover(LULC)andCO2concentrationareconsidered.TheresultsshowthatvariationsofLULCandCO2concentrationduringthepast130yearscausedawarmingtrendinmanyregionsofEastAsia.ThemostremarkabletemperatureincreaseoccurredinInnerMongolia,NortheastandNorthChina,whereastemperaturedecreasedinGansuProvinceandnorthofSichuanProvince.LULCandCO2changesoverthepast130yearsresultedinadecreasingtrendofprecipitationintheHuaiheRivervalley,ShandongByland,andYunnan-GuizhouPlateau,butprecipitationincreasedalongthemiddlereachesoftheYangtzeRiver,themiddlereachesoftheYellowRiver,andpartsofSouthChina.ThispatternofprecipitationchangewithchangesinsurfaceevapotranspirationmayhavecausedamoreseveredroughtinthelowerreachesoftheYellowRiverandtheHuaiheRivervalley.Thedroughttrend,however,weakenedinthemidandupperreachesoftheYellowRivervalley,andtheYangtzeRivervalleyfloodswereincreasing.Inaddition,changesinLULCandCO2concentrationduringthepast130yearsledtoadjustmentsintheEastAsianmonsooncirculation,whichfurtheraffectedwatervaportransportandbudget,makingNorthChinawarmanddry,theSichuanbasincoldandwet,andEastChinawarmandwet.

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简介：内部在有大气循环和SST异例的华南和它的关系上的秋天降水的年度可变性从1951～2004在中国和NCEP-NCAR分析数据集用160个车站的秋天降水数据被检验。结果显示一强壮内部在有秋天的华南和它的积极关联上的秋天降水的年度可变性西方的和平的副热带的高度(WPSH)。在洪水年里，WPSH山脉线在诺思亚洲扳机寒冷空气上躺在华南和加强的山脉的南方上移动向南方。而且，在那里存在一显著地异常updraft和气旋与向北方，溪流在850点加强了hPa和在华南上加强向北方温暖、潮湿的水运输的南方的潮湿运输的一个正异常中心。这些在干旱年里显示反向的特征。秋天降水内部在华南上的年度可变性在西方的太平洋和诺思太平洋与SST断然相关，而否定关联在7月发生在南方印度洋。在在华南上的SST和秋天降水之间的最强壮的落后关联系数的时间是大约二个月，暗示在7月的三个海洋区域的SST可能是为秋天降水的预言者之一内部在华南上的年度可变性。关于在在在华南上的西方的太平洋，秋天WPSH和秋天降水的7月SST之中的连接的讨论建议SST异例可能通过它与秋天WPSH的靠近的关系贡献秋天降水。

简介：Basedonthedailymeantemperatureand24-haccumulatedtotalprecipitationovercentralandsouthernChina,thefeaturesandthepossiblecausesoftheextremeweathereventswithlowtemperatureandicingconditions,whichoccurredinthesouthernpartofChinaduringearly2008,areinvestigatedinthisstudy.Inaddition,multimodelconsensusforecastingexperimentsareconductedbyusingtheensembleforecastsofECMWF,JMA,NCEPandCMAtakenfromtheTIGGEarchives.ResultsshowthatmorethanathirdofthestationsinthesouthernpartofChinawerecoveredbytheextremelyabundantprecipitationwitha50-areturnperiod,andextremelylowtemperaturewitha50-areturnperiodoccurredintheGuizhouandwesternHunanprovinceaswell.Forthe24-to216-hsurfacetemperatureforecasts,thebias-removedmultimodelensemblemeanwithrunningtrainingperiod(R-BREM)hasthehighestforecastskillofallindividualmodelsandmultimodelconsensustechniques.TakingtheRMSEsoftheECMWF96-hforecastsasthecriterion,theforecasttimeofthesurfacetemperaturemaybeprolongedto192hoverthesoutheasterncoastofChinabyusingtheR-BREMtechnique.ForthesprinkleforecastsovercentralandsouthernChina,theR-BREMtechniquehasthebestperformanceintermsofthreatscores(TS)forthe24-to192-hforecastsexceptforthe72-hforecastsamongallindividualmodelsandmultimodelconsensustechniques.Forthemoderaterain,theforecastskilloftheR-BREMtechniqueissuperiortothoseofindividualmodelsandmultimodelensemblemean.

简介：Themaximumheightoftheconvectiveboundarylayer(CBL)overtheTaklimakanDesertcanexceed5000mduringsummerandplaysacrucialroleintheregionalcirculationandweather.WecombinedtheWeatherResearchandForecastingLargeEddySimulation(WRF-LES)withdatafromGlobalPositioningSystem(GPS)radiosondesandfromeddycovariancestationstoevaluatetheperformanceoftheWRF-LESinsimulatingthecharacteristicsofthedeepCBLoverthecentralTaklimakanDesert.ThemodelreproducedtheevolutionoftheCBLprocessesreasonablywell,butthesimulationsgeneratedwarmerandmoisterconditionsthantheobservationasaresultoftheover-predictionofsurfacefluxesandlarge-scaleadvection.Furthersimulationswereperformedwithmultipleconfigurationsandsensitivitytests.Thesensitivitytestsforthelateralboundaryconditions(LBCs)showedthatthemodelresultsaresensitivetochangesinthetimeresolutionanddomainsizeofthespecifiedLBCs.AlargerdomainsizevariesthedistanceoftheareaofinterestfromtheLBCsandreducestheinfluenceoflargeforecasterrorsneartheLBCs.ComparingthemodelresultsusingtheoriginalparameterizationofsensibleheatfluxwiththeNoahlandsurfaceschemeandthoseofthesensitivityexperimentsshowedthatthedesertCBLissensitivetothesensibleheatfluxproducedbythelandsurfaceschemeduringdaytimeinsummer.Areductioninthesensibleheatfluxcancorrectoverestimatesofthepotentialtemperatureprofile.However,increasingthesensibleheatfluxsignificantlyreducesthetotaltimeneededtoincreasetheCBLtoarelativelylowaltitude(<3km)inthemiddleandinitialstagesofthedevelopmentoftheCBLratherthanproducingahigherCBLinthelaterstages.

简介：由使用二维的风地异例和蒙特卡罗模拟实验计划的显著性检验，意义在关系风地异例展示reinvestigated洪水/干旱在期间每年在华南的第一雨季。结果证明在LakeBaikal和中央印度洋的东北上的那西方的和平的副热带的高度和风异例是重要因素。在在1月的北印度和在三月的西北太平洋上的风异例可以是强壮的预言信号。学习也证明在华南的降雨与在三月在北太平洋上提起的重力势高度有一种靠近的关系。

简介：WepresentamodelforpredictingsummertimesurfaceairtemperatureinNortheastChina(NESSAT)usingayear-to-yearincrementalapproach.Thepredictedvalueforeachyear'sincreaseordecreaseofNESSATisaddedtotheobservedvaluewithinaparticularyeartoyieldthenetforecastNESSAT.Theseasonalforecastmodelfortheyear-to-yearincrementsofNESSATisconstructedbasedondatafrom1975-2007.Fivepredictorsareused:anindexforseaicecoverovertheEastSiberianSea,anindexforcentralPacifictropicalseasurfacetemperature,twohighlatitudecirculationindices,aswellasaNorthAmericanpressureindex.AllpredictorsareavailablebynolaterthanMarch,whichallowsforcompilationofaseasonalforecastwithatwo-monthleadtime.ThepredictionmodelaccuratelycapturestheinterannualvariationsofNESSATduring1977-2007withacorrelationcoefficientbetweenthepredictedandobservedNESSATof0.87(accountingfor76%oftotalvariance)andameanabsoluteerror(MAE)of0.3℃.Across-validationtestduring1977-2008demonstratesthatthemodelhasgoodpredictiveskill,withMAEof0.4℃andacorrelationcoefficientbetweenthepredictedandobservedNESSATof0.76.

简介：根据Anderson亲爱原则，为极其重的降雨(缩短的同样极端的降雨/降水)的预报的一个方法基于中国气象学的管理(CMA)的T213全球整体预言系统(EPS)的整体预报数据被开发。在20072010期间使用T213预报降水数据并且在20012010的JuneAugust的观察降雨数据，累积分发功能(CDF)的特征观察，T213EPS预报降水被分析。因此，根据在模型之间的CDF的连续差别，气候和EPS预报，极端降水预报索引(EPFI)的一个数学模型被建立并且适用在17312011年7月期间在中国预报几个极端降雨事件的实验。结果证明EPFI利用了模型的尾巴信息气候的CDF和极端降雨的提供的令人喜悦的的预报。EPFI为预先发给极端降雨的早警告37天基于T213EPS是有用的。与预报铅时间的扩展，EPFI变得不太熟练。结果也证明模型气候CDF的合理性具有到EPFI的技巧的重要重要性。

简介：Withdailyprecipitationrecordsat586stationsinChinafor1960-2004,thisstudyinvestigatesthespatio-temporalvariationofthenumberofextremewetdays(NEWD)foreachseasoninChinaanditsrelationshipwithSSTanomaliesandassociatedatmosphericcirculationanomalypatterns,inwhichathresholdofextremeprecipitationforaseasonandastationisdefinedasthevalueofthe90thpercentilewhentheprecipitationrecordsforwetdaysduringtheseasonarerankedinanincreasingorder.ResultsshowthattherearesignificantincreasesoftheNEWDalongtheYangtzeRivervalleyduringwinterandsummer,inNorthChinaduringwinter,inSouthChinaduringspring,inNortheastChinaduringwinterandspring,andinNorthwestChinathroughouttheseasons,whilethereisaremarkabledecreaseinNorthChinaduringsummer.Besidesthelineartrend,theNEWDalsoexhibitsconsiderableinterannualandinterdecadalvariabilities.Aftereliminatingthelineartrend,theNEWDanomaliesshowdistinctseasonalpatterns.TheNEWDanomaliesarecharacterizedbya"dipole"modewithoppositephasesbetweennorthernandsouthernChinainspringandautumn,a"tri-pole"modewithoppositephasesbetweenYangtzeRivervalleyandsouthernandnorthernChinainsummer,anda"monopole"modewiththesamephaseovermostofChinainwinter.TherelationshipoftheNEWDanomaliesinChinawiththeSSTanomaliesinIndianandPacificOceansisfoundtobemainlydependentontheENSO,andassociatedatmosphericcirculationanomalypatternsfortheENSO’simpactontheNEWDinChinaareidentified.

简介：BasedonthetheoryofCanonicalCorrelationAnalysis(CCA),thecorrelationbetween500hPageopotentialheight(H)fieldsovertheNorthernHemisphere(NH)anda15-regionrainfall(R)fieldofChinainMayisstudied.Theresultsindicatethat:(1)thereisastrongrelationshipbetweentheHfieldsinJanuary/MayandtheRfieldinChina,(2)thevariationofthegeneralcirculationoverthewholeNH(especiallythe500hPaHfieldoverEuropeandAsia)canaffecttheRinChina,(3)inJanuaryandFebruarytheatmosphericgeneralcirculationcanaffecttheRmainlybymeansofplanetarywaves,whileinAprilandMaythemaincontrolmechanismcanbeduetosometeleconnections,and(4)thecharacteristicvectorsforRinMayandHfromJanuarytoMayhavewavetrainstructure,alternatingsignfromsouthtonorth.

简介：在在过去的20年的中国的联合地球/气候系统模型的发展被考察，包括与参予了从阶段1的联合模型Intercomparison工程(CMIP)(CMIP1)分阶段执行4的另外的国际模型(CMIP4)一起的比较。对CMIP的中国贡献被总结，并且到CMIP3的从CMIP1的主要成就为估计中国模型的力量和软弱作为一本参考书被列出。在对CMIP5实验的描述以后，参予了CMIP5的五个中国模型然后被介绍。而且，跟随国际模型开发的当前的地位的评论，为为社区建模的中国气候的挑战和机会被讨论。在大气、海洋的一般发行量模型的高分辨率的气候模型，地球系统模型，和改进的开发，它是地球/气候系统的核心部件当模特儿，被加亮。到气候系统的持续发展在中国建模的保证，对公民级的协作的需要被讨论，与主要部件的一张表一起，支持元素为推进气候建模由美国国家策略识别了。

简介：二强烈伪线性的mesoscale在北中国的对流系统(QLMCS)用WRF被模仿(天气研究并且预报)模型和3D-Var(三维变化)ARPS(先进地区性的预言系统)的分析系统模型。闪电密度是的一个新在方法计算了使用降水和非降水冰质量被开发揭示在闪电活动和QLMCS结构之间的关系。结果显示与用二个以前的方法计算结果相比，闪电密度计算了使用在这研究介绍的新方法在有观察的更好的一致。用新方法基于计算闪电密度，最，闪电活动在右边上并且在QLMCS的前面被开始，这被发现，在表面风领域强烈地收敛了的地方。披肩比到背在向东南的进行QLMCS前是强壮得多的它，和他们的闪电事件主要与披肩的一个大坡度发生在区域。在闪电和非闪电区域之间的比较显示闪电区域比非闪电区域展示了更多的强烈上升运动；在闪电和非闪电区域之间的最大的反射率的垂直范围是很不同的；并且混合比率的冰没展示闪电和非闪电区域之间的重要差别。

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简介：TheinterannualvariationsofrainfalloversouthwestChina(SWC)duringspringanditsrelationshipwithseasurfacetemperatureanomalies(SSTAs)inthePacificareanalyzed,basedonmonthlymeanprecipitationdatafrom26stationsinSWCbetween1961and2010,NCEP/NCARre-analysisdata,andHadleyglobalSSTdata.SensitivitytestsareconductedtoassesstheresponseofprecipitationinSWCtoSSTAsovertwokeyoceanicdomains,usingtheglobalatmosphericcirculationmodelECHAM5.TheinterannualvariationofrainfalloverSWCinspringisverysignificant.Therearestrongnegative(positive)correlationcoefficientsbetweentheanomalousprecipitationoverSWCandSSTAsovertheequatorialcentralPacific(themid-latitudePacific)duringspring.NumericalsimulationsshowthatlocalrainfallinthenorthwestoftheequatorialcentralPacificissuppressed,andasubtropicalanticyclonecirculationanomalyisproduced,whileacycloniccirculationanomalyinthemid-latitudewesternPacificoccurs,whentheequatorialPacificSSTAsareinacoldphaseinspring.AnomalousnortherlywindsappearinthenortheasternpartofSWCinthelowertroposphere.PrecipitationincreasesovertheMaritimeContinentofthewesternequatorialPacific,whileacycloniccirculationanomalyappearsinthenorthwestofthewesternequatorialPacific.AtroughovertheBayofBengalenhancesthesoutherlyflowinthesouthofSWC.ThetroughalsoenhancesthetransportofmoisturetoSWC.ThewarmmoistureintersectswithanomalouscoldairoverthenortheastofSWC,andsoprecipitationincreasesduringspring.Ontheinterannualtimescale,theimpactsofthemid-latitudePacificSSTAsonrainfallinSWCduringspringarenotsignificant,becausethemid-latitudePacificSSTAsareaffectedbytheequatorialcentralPacificSSTAs;thatis,themid-latitudePacificSSTAsareafeedbacktothecirculationanomalycausedbytheequatorialcentralPacificSSTAs.

简介：ByusingNCEPGODASmonthlyseasurfaceheight(SSH)and160-stationmonthlyprecipitationdatainChina,theseasonalandinterannualcharacteristicsofSSHareanalyzedoverthetropicalPacific,andcorrelationsbetweenSSHandsummerrainfallarediscussed.Theresultsareshownasfollows:(1)ThetropicalPacificSSHtakesona'V'patternintheclimaticfieldwithaneastwardopening,anditishigherinthewesternpart(inthenorthwesternpart)thanintheeasternpart(inthesouthwesternpart).Thehigh-valueareasaremorestableinthenorthwest,andthevaluerange(greaterthan0.8m)islargerinspringandsummerthaninautumnandwinter.Thehigh-valueareainthesouthwesternpartisthelargest(smallest)andmorenortherly(southerly)inspring(summer).SSHishigherinspringandautumnthaninsummerandwinterovertheequatorialzone.(2)TheinterannualanomaliesoftheSSHarethestrongestoverthetropicalwesternandsouthwesternPacificandarestrongerinwinterandspringthaninsummerandautumn.TheinterannualanomaliesarealsostrongovertheequatorialmiddleandeasternPacific.Thedistributionrangesarelargerandtheintensitiesarestrongerintheautumnandwinter.ThereisacloserelationshipbetweentheSSHinterannualanomaliesandENSOeventsinautumn,winterandspring.(3)WhenENSOeventstakeplaceinwinter,accordingtothesimultaneousrelationshipamongthetropicPacificSSH,850hPawindfieldsandthesummerprecipitationofChina,itcanbepredictedthattheprecipitationwillbesignificantlymorethannormaloverthesouthoftheYangtzeRiver,especiallyoverDongtingLakeandPoyangLakeregion,easternQinghai-TibetPlateau,Yangtze-HuaiRiverValley,easternpartofInnerMongoliaandlessthannormalovertheareaofGreatBandofYellowRiver,NorthChinaandSouthChinainsuccessivesummers.

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简介：Theeast-westlocationchangeoftheEastAsianwesterlyjet(EAWJ)at200hPaduringMeiyuandtheassociatedspatialdistributionvariationofprecipitationinthemiddle-lowerreachesoftheYangtzeRiver(MLYR)areinvestigatedbyusingthe40-yrNCEP/NCAR(NationalCentersforEnvironmentalPrediction/NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch)pentadmeanreanalysisdataanddailyprecipitationobservationdatafrom1958to1997.Theresultsshowthattherearetwoareasoverwhichthe200-hPaEAWJcenterappearsmostfrequentlyduringtheMeiyuperiod:oneisthewesternPacific(WP)andtheotheristheEastAsiancontinent(EAC).DuringtheMeiyuperiod,thewesterlyjetovertheEACisweak,andthecoreofthewesterlyjetovertheWPsplitsupwithreducedintensityanddisappearsbytheendofMeiyu.ThechangesinthelocationandintensityofthewesterlyjetareassociatednotonlywiththestartingandendingdatesofMeiyu,butalsowiththespatialdistributionandintensityofprecipitationintheMLYR.ItisfoundthatwhenthewesterlyjetcoreintheuppertroposphereislocatedovertheWPandiscoupledwithan850-hPasouthwesterlyjet,heavyprecipitationaccompaniedbystrongconvergenceandplentysupplyofwatervapor,occursinthelowerreachesoftheYangtzeRiver.Ifthe200-hPawesterlyjetcoreislocatedovertheEAC,andwithoutan850-hPasouthwesterlyjet,onlyweakprecipitationoccursintheMLYR.Therefore,thelongitudinallocationoftheEAWJcoreplaysanimportantroleindeterminingtheupper-tolower-levelcirculationstructureandthespatialdistributionofheavyprecipitationintheMLYRduringtheMeiyuperiod.

简介：Thetotal15severedroughtsarediscoveredwiththeaidofthe'RetrievalSystemofChineseHistoricalClimateRecords'forthelast1000years.Thedroughtsareextensivetoenvelopemorethan4provincesandpersistenttocover3yrormore,andtheirseverityisequivalenttoorinexcessofthatinthe1930sinChina.Accordingtothedocumentaryrecordsandrestorationsitcanbeinferredthatmostdroughtsaremoreseverethanthoseinthelast50years.The15droughtsmayeitheroccurwarmorinacoldclimatebackground,with11ofthe15casesinthecoldphase.ThisindicatesthedifferenceinclimatecorrespondencebetweenChinaandnorthernAmerica,showingtheseverityoftheeventsinChinatobeinacoldinsteadofawarmclimatesituation.ThatislikelytorelatetothemonsoonclimateineasternAsia.