Life Loss Estimation Based on Dam-Break Flood Uncertainties and Lack of Information in Mountainous Regions of Western China

(整期优先)网络出版时间:2017-04-14
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Comparedwithurbanfloods,dam-breakfloodsareassociatedwithgreateruncertainties,includingvariabledam-breakmodesandhydrologicalcharacteristics,soconventionalfloodestimationmethodscannotbedirectlyappliedintheestimationofdam-breakfloodloss.Inparticular,thereisscantinformationregardingtheconditionsofaffectedareaandhydrologicalcharacteristicsinsouthwestChina.Inthispaper,weintroduceanintegratedmodelforestimatingfloodlossthatisadaptedtothemountainousregionsofsouthwesternChinainlightoftherelativelackofavailableinformation.Thismodelhasthreemajorcomponents:abasicinformationmodel,adam-routedfloodpropagationsimulationmodel,andalossestimationmodel.Weestablishedthebasicinformationmodeldespitetherelativelackofavailableinformationusing3Stechnology[remotesensing(RS);geographicalinformationsystem(GIS);globalpositioningsystem(GPS)],dataminingtechnology,andstatisticalanalysistechniques.Ourdam-routedfloodpropagationsimulationmodelconsistsofmajorhydrologicprocessesandtheirgoverningequationsforflowpropagation,whichwesolveusingfinite-differenceschemes.Inthismodel,thefloodpropagationareaispidedintogridsandeachgridisdeterminedbythecharacteristicparametersobtainedfromthepropagationsimulation.WepresentacasestudyoftheLianghekouhydropowerstationinSichuanProvince,Chinatoillustratethepracticalapplicationofthisintegratedmodelforlifelossestimation.