Decomposition Analysis of Sectoral Energy Use in Beijing (1981-2005) Using the LMDI Method

(整期优先)网络出版时间:2008-02-12
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ThispaperaimstoidentifythemaindrivingforceforchangesoftotalprimaryenergyconsumptioninBeijingduringtheperiodof1981-2005.Sectoralenergyusewasinvestigatedwhenregionaleconomicstructurechangedsignificantly.ThechangesoftotalprimaryenergyconsumptioninBeijingaredecomposedintoproductioneffects,structuraleffectsandintensityeffectsusingtheadditiveversionofthelogarithmicmeanpisiaindex(LMDI)method.Aggregatedecompositionanalysisshowedthatthemajorcontributoroftotaleffectwasmadebytheproductioneffectfol-lowedbytheintensityeffect,andthestructuraleffectwasrela-tivelyinsignificant.Thetotalandproductioneffectswereallposi-tive.Incontrast,thestructuraleffectandintensityeffectwereallnegative.Sectoraldecompositioninvestigationindicatedthatthemosteffectivewaytoslowdownthegrowthrateoftotalprimaryenergyconsumption(TPEC)wastoreducetheproductionoftheenergy-intensiveindustrialsectorsandimprovingindustrialen-ergyintensity.Theresultsshowthatinthisperiod,Beijing'seconomyhasundergoneatransformationfromanindustrialtoaserviceeconomy.However,thestructuresofsectoralenergyusehavenotbeenchangedyet,andenergydemandshouldbein-creasinguntiltheenergy-intensiveindustrialproductiontobereducedandenergyintensityoftheregionreachesapeak.Assequenceenergyconsumptiondataofsub-sectorsarenotavailable,onlythefundamentalthreesectorsareconsidered:agriculture,industryandservice.However,furtherdecompositionintosecon-daryandtertiarysectorsisdefinitelyneededfordetailedinvesti-gations.