简介：

简介：与Zebiak藤条模型和parameterized一起强迫的intraseasonal的随机的表示，为ElNi的春天可预测性障碍(SPB)上的Madden-Jullian摆动(MJO)的无常的影响?o南部的摆动(ENSO)预言被学习。强迫的MJO的parameterized形式身体上被加到Zebiak藤条模型在与ElNi联系的SPB上获得所谓的Zebiak-Cane-MJO模型然后起始的错误，随机的模型错误，和他们的联合错误模式的效果?o预言被估计。当起始的错误能做时，结果证明强迫的随机的MJO引起的模型错误几乎不能导致重要SPB；而且，起始的错误的联合错误模式和与随机的MJO强迫联系的模型错误能也导致重要SPB。这些证明起始的错误可能是SPB的主要错误来源，它可以为ENSO预报提供数据吸收的一个理论基础。

简介：TodeterminethestudyingregionofChinaTestingCenteroftheCollaboratoryfortheStudyofEarthquakePredictability(CSEP),weadoptedtheEntire-Magnitude-Range(EMR)methodtostudythespatialdistributionofminimummagnitudeofcompleteness(MC)intheNorth-SouthTrendingSeismicBelt(NSTSB)duringtheperiodfromOctober1,2008toMay31,2011.AlsobootstraptestingwasperformedtoestimatetheuncertaintyofMC,i.e.δMC.TheresultsshowthatMC(EMR)=1.6±0.03forthewholeregion.FromthespatialdistributionsofMCwefindthatMCisintherangeofML1.3～2.0formostregions.Specifically,thespatialdistributionofMCisconsistentwiththedistributionofstationsindicatinghighmonitoringlevelinthesouthernpartandlowmonitoringlevelinthenorthernpart.EventslocatedwithlessthanthreestationshavegreatinfluenceonMc.Moreover,theuncertaintyofminimummagnitudeofcompletenessδMCrangesfrom0.07to0.22.ThespatialdistributionofδMCagreeswiththeseismicrate.TheshortertimespanmaycauselargerδMC.