简介：在这份报纸，我们在Atlantic.Our结果如下被显示出的热带印度洋，赤道的太平洋，自台湾东面的菲律宾海流向日本的暖流和诺思上作为对海表面温度异例(SSTA)的回答在欧亚大陆上讨论了大气的发行量的特征:(1)CAM3.0，在四个海洋的区域上由联合SSTA开车，能在2008年1月在欧亚大陆上模仿异常大气的发行量的特征很好，显示在这四个区域上的SSTA的效果是钥匙之一

简介：Arightannualcycleisofcriticalimportanceforamodeltoimproveitsseasonalpredictionskill.ThisworkassessestheperformanceoftheGrid-pointAtmosphericModelofIAPLASG(GAMIL)inretrospectivepredictionoftheglobalprecipitationannualmodesforthe1980-2004period.Theannualmodesaregaugedbyathree-parametermetrics:thelong-termannualmeanandtwomajormodesofannualcycle(AC),namely,asolstitialmodeandanequinoctialasymmetricmode.TheresultsdemonstratethattheGAMILone-monthleadpredictionisbasicallyabletocapturethemajorpatternsofthelong-termannualmeanaswellasthefirstACmode(thesolstitialmonsoonmode).TheGAMILhasdeficienciesinreproducingthesecondACmode(theequinoctialasymmetricmode).ThemagnitudeoftheGAMILpredictiontendstobegreaterthantheobservedprecipitation,especiallyintheseaareasincludingtheArabianSea,theBayofBengal(BOB),andthewesternNorthPacific(WNP).Thesebiasesmaybeduetounderestimationoftheconvectiveactivitypredictedinthetropics,especiallyoverthewesternPacificwarmpool(WPWP)anditsneighboringareas.Itissuggestedthatamoreaccurateparameterizationofconvectioninthetropics,especiallyintheMaritimeContinent,theWPWPanditsneighboringareas,maybecriticalforreproducingthemorerealisticannualmodes,sincetheenhancementofconvectiveactivityovertheWPWPanditsvicinitycaninducesuppressedconvectionovertheWNP,theBOB,andtheSouthIndianOceanwheretheGAMILproducesfalselyvigorousconvections.MoreeffortsareneededtoimprovethesimulationnotonlyinmonsoonseasonsbutalsointransitionalseasonswhenthesecondACmodetakesplace.Selectionoftheone-tierorcoupledatmosphere-oceansystemmayalsoreducethesystematicerroroftheGAMILprediction.TheseresultsoffersomereferencesforimprovementoftheGAMILseasonalpredictionskill.

简介：Inthispaper,five-yearsimulateddatafromalow-resolutionglobalspectralmodelwithtriangulartrunca-lionatwavenumber10areanalyzedinordertostudydynamicalfeaturesandpropagationcharacteristicsofintraseasonaloxillationsoverthemid-latitudesandthetropicalatmosphere.Thesimulationsshowthatthereisthe30-50dayperiodicoscillationinthelow-resolutionspectralmodelwithoutnon-seasonalexternalforcing,andspatialscaleoftheintraseasonaloscihationsisoftheglobe.Furtheranalysisfindsthatpropagationcharac-tersofintraseasonaloscillationsoverthemid-latitudesandthetropicsaredifferent.The30-50dayoscillationoverthetropicsexhibitsstructureofthevelocitypotentialwavewithwavenumber1inthelatitudinalandthecharacterofthetravelingwaveeastwardatspeedof8longitudes/day.However,the30-50dayoscillationsinmid-latitudeatmosphereexhibitphaseandamplitudeoscillationofthestandingplanetarywavesandtheyarerelatedtotransformofteleconnectionpatternsoverthemid-latitudes.Theenergyisnotonlytransferredbetweenthetropicsandthemiddle-highlatitudes,butalsobetweendifferentregionsoverthetropics.Basedontheanalysisof5-yearbandpassfiltereddatafroma5-layerglobalspectralmodelofJow-ordetwithtruncatedwavenumberl0,investigationisdoneofthesourceofintraseasonaloscillationsintheextratropicalmodelatmosphereanditsmechanism.Resultsshowthat(1)theconvectiveheattransferredeastwardalongtheequatorservesasthesourceoftheintraseasonaloxillationbothinthetropicalandtheextratropicalatmos--phere;(2)thevelocity-potentialwaveofazonalstructureofwavenumber1givesrisetooxillationindivergentandconvergentwindfieldsofadipole-formasseenfromtheequatorialIndianOceantothewesternPacificduringitseastwardpropagation,thusindicatingtheoscillationinthedipole-formheatsoure:e/sinkpattertl;(3)thetropicalheat-sourceoscillationisresponsibleforthe

简介：到来自主要的河的淡水流量的全球海洋循环和温度的回答被在在麻省理工学院开发的全球海洋将军发行量模型(OGCM)堵住地区性的流量学习。进孟加拉和北阿拉伯的海的热带大西洋，西方的诺思太平洋，和海湾的流量有选择地被堵住。首先堵住河流量在河嘴(2个实际咸度单位)附近导致了咸度增加。更咸并且因此，更稠密的水然后被吝啬的水流在北方大西洋，诺思太平洋，和南部的印度洋搬运到更高的纬度。在北、南部的半球的海洋之间的随后的密度对比在主要海洋水流导致了变化。这些异常海洋水流导致重要温度变化(1掳C?2掳C)由结果，异常的热搬运。堵住的河流量创造的水流和温度异例经由沿海、赤道的凯尔文波浪从一海洋盆宣传了到其它。这研究建议河流量可能在海洋的咸度，温度，和发行量正在起一个重要作用；并且部分或充分堵住主要的河转移淡水因为社会目的可能显著地改变海洋咸度，发行量，温度，和大气的气候。进一步的研究是必要的在联合空气海洋系统估计河流量的角色。关键词河流量-海洋将军循环-淡水流动

简介：由于CO2的放射的强迫的新评价用CO2和一个高分辨率的放射的转移模型的更新的集中数据被计算。同温层(ARF)调整放射的强迫由于从到2010的更新的年的一年1750的CO2被发现增加了到1.95Wm2，它是17%比IPCC的大第4评价报告因为CO2集中的快速的增加自从2005。一个新公式被建议精确地描述在CO2和它的集中的ARF之间的关系。根据在ARF和表面温度变化之间的关系，而且，在平衡表面温度的可能的变化在情形下面被估计CO2的集中在一年2008增加到乘集中的的1.5，2，2.5，3，3.5和4。结果是+2.2的价值

简介：这份报纸为在全球规模从计量器观察，卫星估计(SE)，和数字预言合并每日的降水信息描述策略。策略被设计把全身的偏爱和随机的错误从每单个每日的降水来源移开生产通过三的全球每日的降水产品走的更好的gridded。首先，匹配过程的累积分发功能被执行在定位计量器的陆地区域上移开全身的偏爱。然后，在在海洋区域上的SE和模型预言(MP)的全面偏爱基于每月的降水用重新可伸缩的策略被改正。第三，最佳的插值(OI)基于合并计划(作为HL-OI计划参考了)被用来联合从每来源减少随机的错误并且生产一个gaugesatellite模型的不偏的计量器观察，SE，和MP合并每日的降水分析，叫的BMEP-d(北京气候中心把降水的评价与每日的分辨率合并了)，与完全的全球范围。从一个四年的时期(2011-14)的BMEP-d数据表明合并策略的能力提供实质地改进的质量的全球每日的降水。为量的错误得益于HL-OI计划的优点估计，更好的来源数据能在合并进程期间获得更多的重量。BMEP-d数据展览有在中间、低的纬度的卫星和计量器来源数据，并且与在高纬度的模型来源数据的更高的一致性。总的来说，对GPCP-1DD(GPCP一个度日报)的独立确认证明在BMEP-d和GPCP-1DD之间的一致性以空间模式，时间的可变性，概率分发，和统计降水事件比每来源数据集的那些高。

简介：Inthisstudy,weexaminealong-termincreasingtrendinsubtropicalpotentialvorticity(PV)intrusioneventsoverthePacificOceaninrelationtotheglobalmeantemperaturerise,basedonmultiplereanalysisdatasets.ThefrequencyofthePVintrusionsiscloselyrelatedtotheupper-troposphericequatorialwesterlyductandthesubtropicaljet(STJ).AnoverallstrengtheningofthewesterlyductandweakeningoftheSTJarefoundtobedrivenbythewarming-inducedstrengtheningofWalkercirculationandregionalchangesinHadleycirculationonmulti-decadaltimescale,leadingtoanincreaseinthePVintrusionfrequencyoverthetropics.Theresultsarerobustinalldatasets.Themulti-decadalstrengtheninginthePacificWalkercirculationisconsistentwiththeglobalmeantemperaturerise.Inthisway,thePVintrusionsarecorrelatedwiththewarmingrelatedglobalmeantemperuaterise.WhentheinterannualvariabilityofENSOisremovedfromtheintrusiontimeseries,thelong-termtrendinPVintrusionsduetoexternalforcingassociatedwithanthropogenicwarming(globalmeantemperaturerise)becomesclearer.Thelinkbetweentheglobalmeantemperatureriseandintrusionfrequencyisfurtherverifiedbyperformingacorrelationanalysisbetweenthetwo.Thesignificant(>95%)correlationcoefficientis0.85,0.94,0.84,0.83,and0.84forERA-40,ERA-Interim,NCEP-NCAR,JRA-55,andJRA-25,respectively.Thisunequivocallyindicatesthattheglobalmeantemperaturerisecanexplainaround69%–88%ofthevariancerelatedtothelong-termincreaseinPVintrusionfrequencyoverthePacificOcean.

简介：

简介：基于三个全球年度吝啬的表面温度时间系列和三个中国年度平均数表面空气温度时间系列，多重timescales上的气候变化趋势被使用多滑动的时间窗户的趋势评价方法分析。结果被用来在1998-2012期间讨论所谓的全球温暖的中断。不同开始和结束时间在趋势评价的结果上有明显的效果，这被表明，并且当使用一扇短窗户时，含意特别地大。全球温暖的中断在1998-2012期间是在短timescales上看温度系列的结果；并且类似于它的事件，或有甚至冷的趋势的事件，实际上历史上多次发生了。因此，全球温暖的中断是可能的是长期的温度变化的一个期刊特征。它主要在短学期反映温度，和如此的现象的十的可变性不从长远的观点看改变全面温暖趋势。

简介：热带降雨测量的影响结构和intraseasonal摆动(ISO)的内在的物理上的使命(TRMM)降水产品与美国国家航空学和观察系统模型版本3的空格管理戈达德土(GEOS-3)被调查数据吸收系统(DAS)。在1998夏天的强壮的ISO阶段显然位于亚洲季风区域和东方赤道的和平的区域。当向东北的繁殖是在30点的突出的ISO到超过10的60天的摆动时，东方繁殖是为在20点的热带ISO的一个主导的特征到30天的摆动

简介：UsingtheCAM3.0model,weinvestigatedtherespectiveeffectsofaerosolconcentrationincreasinganddecadalvariationofglobalseasurfacetemperature(SST)aroundyear1976/77ontheEastAsianprecipitationinborealsummer.BydoublingtheconcentrationofthesulfateaerosolandblackcarbonaerosolseparatelyandsynchronouslyinEastAsia(100-150°E,20-50°N),theclimateeffectsoftheseaerosolsarespecificallyinvestigated.TheresultsshowthatboththedecadalSSTchangingandaerosolconcentrationincreasingcouldleadtorainfalldecreasinginthecenterofEastAsia,butincreasingintheregionsalongsoutheastcoastareasofChina.However,thedifferentpatternsofrainfalloveroceanandlowerwindfieldoverAsiancontinentbetweenaerosolexperimentsandSSTexperimentsinCAM3.0indicatethepresenceofdifferentmechanisms.Intheincreasedaerosolconcentrationexperiments,scatteringeffectisthemainclimateeffectforbothsulfateandblackcarbonaerosolsintheEasternAsiansummer.Especiallyintheincreasedsulfateaerosolconcentrationexperiment,theclimatescatteringeffectofaerosolleadstothemostsignificanttemperaturedecreasing,sinkingconvectionanomaliesanddecreasedrainfallinthetroposphereoverthecentralpartofEastAsia.However,inanincreasedblackcarbonaerosolconcentrationexperiment,weakenedsinkingconvectionanomaliesexistatthesoutherlyposition.ThisweakenedsinkinganditscompensatingrisingconvectionanomaliesinthesouthleadtotheheavyrainfalloversoutheastcoastareasofChina.Whenconcentrationsofbothsulfateandblackcarbonaerosolsincreasesynchronously,theanomalousrainfalldistributionissomewhatlikethatintheincreasedblackcarbonconcentrationaerosolexperimentbutwithlessintensity.

简介：喷雾器光性质被模仿用光谱为喷雾器种类(SPRINTARS)的放射运输模型结合了非静水力学的ICosahedral大气的模型(NICAM)。3年的全球吝啬的所有天空喷雾器在550nm的光厚度(AOT)，?ngstr?m代表(AE)分别地在0.123，0.657和0.944点基于在440和870nm，和在550nm的单个散布反照率(SSA)的AOT被估计。为每喷雾器种，吝啬的AOT在AeroCom模型的范围以内。建模的所有天空和清楚天空的结果与从中等分辨率成像分光辐射函数(MODIS)和喷雾器机器的网络(AERONET)的观察相比。所有天空AOT的模仿的空间与时间的分布能通常复制MODIS检索，和关联和模型技巧能稍微在大多数陆地区域上用清楚天空的结果被改进。之间的差别清楚天空并且所有天空AOT在弄脏的区域上是更大的。与从AERONET的观察相比，建模并且观察的所有天空AOT和AE通常在合理同意，而SSA变化很好没被捕获。尽管所有天空和清楚天空的结果的空间与时间的分布是类似的，清楚天空的结果更好通常与观察被相关。清楚天空的AOT和SSA比所有天空结果的通常低，特别在喷雾器化学药品作文主要被硫酸盐喷雾器贡献的那些区域。建模的清楚天空的AE比在吸水的喷雾器统治的那些区域上的所有天空AE大，当反面在恐水病的喷雾器统治的区域上被发现时。

简介：基于历史的跑，核心之一联合模型Intercomparison工程(CMIP5)的第五个阶段试验，雪深度(SD)和灵活全球Ocean-Atmosphere-Land系统(FGOALS)的二个版本模仿的雪盖子部分(SCF)当模特儿，格子点版本2(g2)并且光谱版本2(s2)，对观察数据被验证。结果表明在北半球(NH)上的SD和SCF的空间模式被两个模型模仿很好，除了在西藏的高原上，与在分别地为SD和SCF在0.7和0.8附近的所有月的平均空间关联系数。尽管雪累积的发作被二个模型以SD和SCF的年度周期捕获很好，g2在NH的很中间纬度、高纬度的区域上过高估计SD/SCF。因为它在它的大气的部件考虑喷雾器的间接效果，分析证明g2比s2生产更低的温度，它是为二个模型之间的SD/SCF差别的主要司机。另外，两个模型模仿SCF的重要减少趋势很好在上(在在大西洋和108坏訄?訄的和平的盆北方的欧亚大陆和温暖的SST上的30air吗？？

简介：Thesecond-generationGlobalOceanDataAssimilationSystemoftheBeijingClimateCenter(BCC_GODAS2.0)hasbeenrundailyinapre-operationalmode.Itspanstheperiod1990tothepresentday.ThegoalofthispaperistointroducethemaincomponentsandtoevaluateBCC_GODAS2.0fortheusercommunity.BCC_GODAS2.0consistsofanobservationaldatapreprocess,oceandataqualitycontrolsystem,athree-dimensionalvariational(3DVAR)dataassimilation,andglobaloceancirculationmodel[ModularOceanModel4(MOM4)].MOM4isdrivenbysix-hourlyfluxesfromtheNationalCentersforEnvironmentalPrediction.Satellitealtimetrydata,SST,andin-situtemperatureandsalinitydataareassimilatedinrealtime.ThemonthlyresultsfromtheBCC_GODAS2.0reanalysisarecomparedandassessedwithobservationsfor1990-2011.TheclimatologyofthemixedlayerdepthofBCC-GODAS2.0isgenerallyinagreementwiththatofWorldOceanAtlas2001.ThemodeledsealevelvariationsinthetropicalPacificareconsistentwithobservationsfromsatellitealtimetryoninterannualtodecadaltimescales.PerformancesinpredictingvariationsintheSSTusingBCC_GODAS2.0areevaluated.ThestandarddeviationoftheSSTinBCC-GODAS2.0agreeswellwithobservationsinthetropicalPacific.BCC-GODAS2.0isabletocapturethemainfeaturesofE1NinoModokiIandModokiⅡ,whichhavedifferentimpactsonrainfallinsouthernChina.Inaddition,therelationshipsbetweentheIndianOceanandthetwotypesofE1NinoModokiarealsoreproduced.

简介：这份报纸调查与轨道预报了使用全球/地区性的吸收和预言系统(葡萄)的热带气旋(TC)联系的错误的可能的来源。葡萄预报在2008和2009个季节期间在西方的诺思太平洋盆为16landfallingTC被做，与72个小时的预报长度，并且使用缺省起始的条件(initials，此后)，它从NCEP-FNL数据集，以及ECMWFinitials。预报与ECMWF预报相比。当与缺省initials相比使用ECMWFinitials时，结果证明在大多数TC，GRAPES预报被改进。与ECMWFinitials相比，缺省initials生产更低的紧张TC和更低的紧张副热带的高度，而是更高的紧张南亚高度和季风马槽，以及更高的温度但是在TC中心的更低的特定的湿度。有ECMWFinitials在并且在在起始的时间的TC中心附近的geopotential高度和风地的代替被发现是改进预报的最有效的方法。另外，在预报精确性显示出最大的改进的TC通常在TC紧张有最大的起始的无常并且通常在加强的阶段。结果为用葡萄做的TC轨道预报表明起始的紧张的重要性，并且显示模型在比TC的腐烂的阶段描述加强的阶段更好。最后，改进的限制显示与葡萄预报联系的模型错误可以是landfallingTC的差的预报的主要原因。因此，模型错误的进一步的考试被要求。

简介：Inthispaper,theforecastingequationsofa2nd-orderspace-timedifferentialremainderarededucedfromtheNavier-StokesprimitiveequationsandEulerianoperatorbyTaylor-seriesexpansion.Hereweintroduceacubicsplinenumericalmodel(SplineModelforshort),whichiswithaquasi-Lagrangiantime-splitintegrationschemeoffittingcubicspline/bicubicsurfacetoallphysicalvariablefieldsintheatmosphericequationsonsphericaldiscretelatitude-longitudemesh.Anewalgorithmof'fittingcubicspline—timestepintegration—fittingcubicspline—……'isdevelopedtodeterminetheirfirst-and2nd-orderderivativesandtheirupstreampointsfortimediscreteintegraltothegoverningequationsinSplineModel.AndthecubicsplinefunctionanditsmathematicalpolaritiesarealsodiscussedtounderstandtheSplineModel’smathematicalfoundationofnumericalanalysis.ItispointedoutthattheSplineModelhasmathematicallawsof'convergence'ofthecubicsplinefunctionscontractingtotheoriginalfunctionsaswellasits1st-orderand2nd-orderderivatives.The'optimality'ofthe2nd-orderderivativeofthecubicsplinefunctionsisoptimalapproximationtothatoftheoriginalfunctions.Inaddition,aHermitebicubicpatchisequivalenttooperateonagridfora2nd-orderderivativevariablefield.Besides,theslopesandcurvaturesofacentraldifferenceareidentifiedrespectively,withasmoothingcoefficientof1/3,three-pointsmoothingofthatofacubicspline.Thentheslopesandcurvaturesofacentraldifferencearecalculatedfromthesmoothingcoefficient1/3andthree-pointsmoothingofthatofacubicspline,respectively.Furthermore,aglobalsimulationcaseofadiabatic,non-frictionaland'incompressible'modelatmosphereisshownwiththequasi-LagrangiantimeintegrationbyusingaglobalSplineModel,whoseinitialconditioncomesfromtheNCEPreanalysisdata,alongwithquasi-uniformlatitude-longitudegridsandtheso-called'shallowatmosphere'Navier-Stokesprimitiveequationsinthes